Hurricane Ian Gives Ron DeSantis His Toughest Test—and Golden Opportunity

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis may be facing a crucial test as Hurricane Ian heads toward his state and residents prepare for high winds and potential widespread damage.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center has said that Ian could become a Category 4 hurricane before making landfall in Florida on Wednesday and the state could see winds of up to 130mph.

As Floridians board up buildings and evacuate their homes in advance of the hurricane's arrival, DeSantis has been preparing a response and has been cooperating with President Joe Biden's administration on federal assistance.

Political scientists who spoke to Newsweek suggested DeSantis could benefit politically from showing successful leadership during Hurricane Ian, but potential mistakes carried significant risks.

DeSantis is seeking re-election in November and is facing Democrat and former Florida Governor Charlie Crist, while the former is also considered a likely candidate for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.

Rising Above Politics

A hurricane is not a partisan issue and DeSantis could show he can rise above politics by his handling of the crisis, said Thomas Gift, founding director of University College London's Centre on U.S. Politics.

"Natural disasters—like other crises—have the potential to induce a 'rally 'round the flag' effect," Gift told Newsweek. "With effective leadership, politicians can leverage an atmosphere of solidarity to unite support among voters."

However, Gift said effective leadership was not "a foregone conclusion" and pointed to criticism of then President George W. Bush's response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

"Time and again, accusations of mismanagement and flatfooted responses have left politicians reeling in the face of catastrophes. George W. Bush amid Hurricane Katrina was a case in point," he said.

"By rising above politics and offering a steady hand at the helm, DeSantis could prove that he's more than a culture warrior—that he has both the management skills and the compassion to lead his state amid a time of crisis," Gift said.

"But if he fails the test, DeSantis could find himself even more hopelessly mired in the eye of a partisan storm," he added.

Making His Reputation

Successfully handling the hurricane response could play a major role in building up DeSantis' reputation but failure could have the opposite effect, as was the case for then Louisiana Governor Kathleen Blanco in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

"The best that Ron DeSantis can hope for as Hurricane Ian bears down on Florida is emerging from the deluge with his administration seen as competent in its handling of the storm," said Mark Shanahan, an associate professor at the University of Surrey in the U.K. and co-editor of The Trump Presidency: From Campaign Trail to World Stage.

"One previous governor, Jeb Bush, made his reputation on his capable management of a slew of major weather events, while his brother's notorious mishandling of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans sent the president's reputation spiraling," Shanahan told Newsweek via email.

Shanahan said DeSantis could gain positive publicity from "working seamlessly with FEMA [Federal Emergency Management Agency] and the Executive; maintaining co-operative communication with the cities and counties bearing the brunt of Ian, and showing leadership across the State in preparing for, weathering and clearing-up after the hurricane."

He said that with less than two months until midterms "a competently-managed hurricane could give him just the bounce required to see off the challenge from the Democrats' Charlie Crist, and lay another strong level in the firm foundation he's building for a run at the presidency in 2024."

Hurricane Katrina

Nonetheless, what happened to former Louisiana Governor Blanco's offers a warning. She was harshly criticized for her response to Katrina and chose not to seek reelection in 2008.

"Get this wrong, and DeSantis could become another Kathleen Blanco, who saw the rest of her one-term governorship dogged by repeated failures in the aftermath of the Katrina disaster which saw the deaths of around 1,500 people and the displacement of a million more," Shanahan said.

"The poor were hugely disproportionately affected—something DeSantis will be fully aware of, not least as he weighs up if and how to support Florida's teetering insurance market. If property owners find their insurers not paying up in the wake of Ian, they'll be sure to let DeSantis know at the ballot box in November," he said.

Working with Biden

There may be other political risks for DeSantis other than mismanaging the hurricane. The governor has welcomed support from the federal government and told Fox News on Wednesday he was "thankful" for Biden's help.

"People are prone to rally around a leader in any kind of crisis," Paul Quirk, a political scientist at the University of British Columbia, told Newsweek. "In particular, if a governor can't find ways to make people in the throes of a natural disaster feel gratitude toward him, he isn't trying very hard."

He said that DeSantis "could have difficulty working with President Biden, FEMA, and other federal agencies."

"Dealing with the Biden administration in a cooperative manner might run counter to his campaign messaging," Quirk said.

"He could fail to look the part of a caring, empathetic leader in needy communities, or just refuse to play it. Or the recovery could drag on for too long. The five weeks between the hurricane and election day is enough time for people to stop being grateful and start complaining," he said.