Hurricane Kay Path, Tracker as California, Mexico Brace for Storm

A tropical wave in the eastern Pacific Ocean is barreling toward a potential landfall in Mexico and a skirting of the California coastline. Hurricane Kay is a Category 1 storm just south of the Baja California peninsula in northwest Mexico, as reported by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) on Tuesday afternoon.

Hurricane Kay had maximum sustained winds of 85 mph on Tuesday, with higher gusts in some places, and was located a couple hundred miles south of Baja California. The storm was moving slightly northwestern into the Pacific at 15 mph, according to NHC.

The coastline from the Baja up towards San Diego are under tropical storm watches and warnings, and storm surges could be much higher than typical storms.

"Kay is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion should continue through tonight," the NHC said in a Tuesday night statement. "A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Wednesday, and this motion should continue into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected to pass to the west of the southern Baja California peninsula on Wednesday, and be near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula Thursday and Friday."

The far west coast of Mexico's Baja California peninsula is expected to get battered by rains and high winds, and a potential landfall of Kay's center over the next few days.

"Kay is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maxima of 15 inches across the central portions of the Baja California peninsula through Friday," NHC stated. "Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with maxima of 8 inches are possible across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula.

"Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are possible across northwestern portions of mainland Mexico. These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, including landslides."

What can California expect?

The southernmost parts of California can expect high winds, heavy rains and strong storm surges even if Kay moves toward its northwestern trajectory. But with tropical systems, things could change and Kay could move inward, which would likely drench California.

"It is forecast to move to close to San Diego and then curve west," the National Weather Service in Los Angeles said, according to Fox Weather. "There is a possibility that this system will bring significant rainfall to portions of the area."

The NHC stated that swells from local surf regions could become life-threatening.

Will Kay intensify?

Hurricane Kay is currently a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds, but if it moves away from the coastline, it could increase to a Category 2 storm or higher. However, it'll likely stay at a Cat 1 or downgrade into a tropical storm if it stays near the coast.