Iceland Volcano Update: Scientists Get Good News About Eruption Threat

The likelihood of an imminent volcanic eruption near Grindavik in southwest Iceland is diminishing, officials have said.

Residents were evacuated from the fishing town of Grindavik on Iceland's Reykjanes peninsula on November 11 after magma moving under the earth caused earthquakes, triggering fears that an eruption on or just off the peninsula was likely.

Authorities are building earth walls around Grindavik, a town with a population of about 3,400 that is around an hour's drive from the capital Reykjavik, to divert lava in the event of an eruption. The nearby Blue Lagoon geothermal resort, one of Iceland's most popular tourist attractions, has closed its doors until at least November 30 due to the danger.

However, on Thursday, the Icelandic Meteorological Office said that while an eruption remains possible, the likelihood of it being near Grindavik is currently low and "decreasing daily."

"The likelihood of a volcanic eruption at some location along the length of the magma intrusion persists," the office said in Thursday's update on its website.

"It is possible that magma could emerge in the area between Hagafell and Sýlingarfell. However, as crustal relaxation continues to occur and seismicity decreases, along with a decrease in magma inflow to the intrusion, the likelihood of an imminent volcanic eruption diminishes with time."

The latest data suggests "the likelihood of a sudden eruption within the Grindavík urban area is decreasing daily, and it is presently assessed as low," the update said.

"It can be assumed that newly emplaced magma beneath Grindavík has solidified partially, thereby reducing the likelihood that the magma will reach the surface within the city limits.

"However, we emphasize that the possibility of a volcanic eruption at some point along the length of the intrusion, particularly between Hagafell and Sýlingarfell, remains plausible."

About 300 earthquakes were detected in the region of the magma intrusion on Tuesday, the office said. At least 100 in the same region from midnight on November 22 to 6 p.m. UTC the same day—"considerably less than in recent days," the office said.

This chart, provided by Statista, shows countries with the most volcanoes that have been active since 1960.

Iceland, which straddles two tectonic plates, is no stranger to volcanic eruptions.

The Fagradalsfjall volcanic system on the Reykjanes peninsula has erupted three times since 2021, after being dormant for more than 800 years.

The last major eruption was in 2010, when the Eyjafjallajokull volcano spewed huge clouds of ash into the atmosphere and grounded flights across Europe for days.

"People in Iceland are hypersensitive to volcanic eruptions in the wake of plate motions, so the nation is nervously waiting for or expecting an eruption," Haraldur Sigurdsson, an Icelandic volcanologist and an emeritus professor of geophysics at the University of Rhode Island, told Newsweek this week.

But he said that the authorities had taken "rather draconian measures" by evacuating Grindavik's residents and closing roads to traffic nearby.

"I guess they work on the principle of better safe than sorry, but the restrictions have shut down the town's flourishing fishing industry, and caused hardships," he said.