Are Idaho Police Running Out of Time to Find Students' Killer?

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It has been roughly two weeks since the fatal stabbing of four University of Idaho students and the timing may make it harder for police to find the suspect.

On November 13, Kaylee Goncalves, Madison Mogen, Ethan Chapin and Xana Kernodle were found dead in their residence near the University of Idaho. Police said that they all died from stab wounds and some had "defensive wounds" on their body.

As of Monday, November 28, police have not yet identified a suspect in the case or found a weapon that may have been used in the crime. The lack of a suspect has left the community reeling with fear as University of Idaho students return to campus.

Kenneth Mains, a former law enforcement officer and founder of the American Investigative Society of Cold Cases told Newsweek on Monday that the likelihood of catching a suspect "most certainly does" decrease over time.

"Yet, investigations take time. The interviews, forensics, technology tracking, victimology, crime scene assessment, criminal profiling, surveillance all take time to do. The logistics, manpower, budgets and of course egos all will play a part in this investigation. It's not television where things are solved in an hour...this is real life," Mains told Newsweek.

Captain Roger Lainer of Moscow PD
In this combination image, Captain Roger Lainer of Moscow PD and inset image of University of Idaho student victims, Kaylee Goncalves, Xana Kernodle, Ethan Chapin and Madison Mogen Moscow PD

William King, a professor and chair of the Department of Criminal Justice at Boise State University, also told Newsweek about how timing plays a role in a criminal investigation like this one. Citing a research article entitled "Clearing Murders: Is It About Time?", King said, "Although I enjoy the TV show, The First 48, the majority of homicides in the US are not solved in the first two days, nor are unsolved cases (unsolved after two days) unsolvable after two days."

"Looking at the time elapsed between a homicide and clearance (clearance as arrest of a suspect) (Recgoeczi et al.), half (50%) of homicides are solved with an arrest of a suspect by day 17. After day 17, the probability of solving the homicide with an arrest tails-off gradually. The data reveal that suspects are still arrested between days 17 and 100, and eventually, sixty percent of homicides are solved by day 243," King added.

Michael Marciano, a research associate professor of forensic science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek on Monday that despite the lack of a suspect in the case, he believes that police and forensic investigators are working as quickly as they can to process possible DNA samples and build a suspect profile.

"It's still very early on. So I would not necessarily expect results at this point," Marciano told Newsweek. "There's a possibility that they have a profile...there are many different quality checks that have to go through in order to ensure that the forensic DNA process was done in a high quality manner."

Newsweek reached out to the Moscow Police Department for updated information.

About the writer

Matthew Impelli is a Newsweek staff writer based in New York. His focus is reporting social issues and crime. In January 2023, Matthew traveled to Moscow, Idaho where he reported on the quadruple murders and arrest of Bryan Kohberger. Matthew joined Newsweek in 2019 after graduating from Syracuse University. He also received his master's degree from St. John's University in 2021. You can get in touch with Matthew by emailing m.impelli@newsweek.com. Languages: English.


Matthew Impelli is a Newsweek staff writer based in New York. His focus is reporting social issues and crime. In ... Read more