As Immigration Stalls, Will Arizona Activists Work to Re-elect Mark Kelly?

Grassroots progressive activists in Arizona are part of a network that knows how to mobilize voters and win elections, having knocked on 2 million doors in 2020 and spent some $20 million to help Joe Biden win the presidency and elect Mark Kelly to the U.S. Senate.

But they're frustrated with the Democratic Party and its inability to pass comprehensive immigration legislation, at a time when the approval for Biden's presidency in Arizona and other swing states has tumbled.

Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan all supported Biden by slim margins in 2020, but a February CIVIQS poll found his approval was low in all of them, with the president faring the worst in Arizona, which showed 32% approval and 61% disapproval.

Arizona activists often describe a close relationship with the communities they represent. Sometimes that means they are still pushing on an issue like immigration, even when the national headwinds appear to show the chances of something happening are very small. But it also means they take their cues on their work from voters they describe as battered and disappointed by Democrats nationally and statewide, like Kelly.

"Our communities turned out, and there were so many promises made during the election," Alejandra Gomez, the co-executive director of LUCHA Arizona, told Newsweek. "Our new senator said they were going to fight for Dreamers, specifically, and fight for a path to citizenship, and what we have seen is that the entire Democratic establishment fell short of their promises."

"One term is often enough for voters to understand where they fall on the priority list, and our voters are already asking us what happened," she added, "so Democrats are going to have to do significant work and significant investment to change that."

One activist leader in Arizona, who asked not to be named in order to be able to speak candidly about the situation facing Kelly, said their community has been disappointed by the inability of Democrats to move any legislation or enact executive orders that will protect immigrants and families.

The source said the community has not given up on Kelly yet. He is still viewed by young organizers of color in a much more positive light than his much-maligned colleague Senator, Kyrsten Sinema, because unlike her he still maintains an open line of communication with them.

But they are still not happy.

"Something my leaders have shared with me is that they're still engaging voters, they're still working, but they're allowed to have this frustration," the source said.

While larger immigration measures have stalled, left-leaning activists have been annoyed by what they say is Kelly's focus on border security and bipartisanship.

In a press release last week titled "Kelly, Sinema Deliver Key Priorities Securing the Border, Keeping Arizona Communities Safe, and Ensuring Safe and Orderly Process," Kelly's office announced he had helped secure over $1.45 billion for U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) as part of the government funding package to deal with "the crisis at the border" putting "a strain on our communities and law enforcement."

"I'll keep working with my Republican and Democratic colleagues in the Senate and continue pushing the Biden administration to ensure Arizona does not bear the cost of this crisis," Kelly said last week.

Kelly's office did not respond to a Newsweek request for comment on frustration from activists who helped to elect him, but an advisor to the former astronaut and Navy veteran acknowledged immigration is a tough issue in Arizona, where Kelly is caught in a "vice" politically.

"If you're a Democrat, you're most worried about turnout this cycle," the source said, "but immigration also gets Republicans excited if they're mad about what's going on at the border."

The Kelly advisor pointed to the senator's comments at public events, explaining that immigration is the issue that has frustrated him the most, because there are popular things that can get done, like passing the DREAM Act, but it falls apart when Democrats and Republicans want more in a comprehensive package than the other party will accept.

"Somebody like Mark would love to be like, 'Why don't we just get the stuff we can get done and take victories where we can get them,'" the source said.

Chuck Coughlin, who served as a campaign manager and advisor for former Republican Governor Jan Brewer and is the president of HighGround which runs polls in Arizona, told Newsweek the real problem for Kelly is not what supporters on the left want, but headlines like a recent Arizona Republic story that read, "Phoenix becomes latest bottleneck as migrant releases from border grow."

"There's no one party that can win a race, it's how unaffiliated voters will break," Coughlin said. "Unaffiliated voters want border security first."

He said the midterm cycle will not see Republicans turnout at a plus-3 level as it did in 2020, but instead it will be an older and more conservative electorate.

Ian Danley, the executive director of Arizona Wins, the coalition of more than 30 progressive groups which includes LUCHA Arizona and others who knocked on the two million doors and together spent $20 million during the last cycle, said Kelly will again need the "rocket" turnout they helped him achieve, particularly with growing Republican attacks on voting.

"His contrast is with the worst senator in the caucus," Danley said, referring to Sinema. "He doesn't have to do much to be better than her, because she sets the bar so low,"

He said that while immigration is a tough ask, Kelly should listen and be responsive to this key group of advocates and organizers — activists that have not abandoned him — yet.

"He's kind of a traditional, white Arizona Democrat they're not in love with," Danley added. "But they're playing ball, hopeful the second term is where you can push him."