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From Sudan to Yemen, we have always known that war drives hunger and poverty. But the data increasingly show us that the opposite is also true—that investing in food security is often a precursor of peace.
One billion people live in what the United Nations calls "fragile situations"—areas suffering a combustible mix of violence, weak governance, natural disasters, or chronic inequality. By 2030, this number is set to include two-thirds of the world's poor. So those living in fragile situations are the least equipped to withstand crises and the most likely to be forced to endure them.
Fragility both increases poverty and hunger and entrenches conflict itself—causing a doom loop from which it is almost impossible to escape. Ongoing fighting in South Sudan is reckoned to have slashed GDP to a mere third of what it would otherwise have been in 2018. In a country where 66 percent of the population lives on less than about $2 a day, this is catastrophic to the country's chances of developing, which in turn makes it harder to diffuse tensions.
The best solution is to invest at the source. Because if rural communities can be supported to grow decent food and jobs for themselves, the chances of conflict and forced migration are significantly lower. We have proof of this from our own work, when we combined satellite imagery and other datasets, to examine the impact of rural finance projects on local conflict.
In Ethiopia, we found a clear link between improved land productivity and a decrease in local conflicts. And in Mali, communities that received cash assistance and financial advice remained stable, whereas non-participating districts saw an 8 percent increase in local conflicts over the same period.
It makes sense—healthier, more productive farms diminish tensions over resources. And there is a clear relationship between economic opportunities and social stability.
These links are recognized in the Pact for the Future, which will be adopted by world leaders in New York at the 79th United Nations General Assembly. Those leaders, from governments, multilateral finance institutions, private companies, and NGOs must work together to deliver on this pact to bring about increased investments in rural areas—and fast.
Not only is climate change driving increased emergencies and urgency, it makes financial sense to act now—every $1 spent on resilience now saves up to $10 in emergency aid in the future.
I see three priority areas for where these investments should be directed:
—Invest in Small-Scale Producers
First, we need to invest far more to improve the lot of the world's smallest farmers, who produce up to 70 percent of food in developing countries. We know that agricultural growth is at least twice as effective in reducing poverty compared to growth in other sectors. Yet as the urgency of climate change drives increasing competition for resources, for the past two decades support for agricultural development has been stagnant at just 5-6 percent of total official development assistance.
If food is becoming increasingly an area of strategic as well as moral importance, it is clear that too few countries are investing enough in rural and agricultural development to secure it.
—Climate-Proof Farmers
Second, we need to beef up small-scale food producers' resilience to climate change—a disruptive force that can tip normal situations into fragile ones and fragile situations into chaos.
Solutions exist to help smallholders be more effective and innovative in their efforts to adapt to climate change and grow the food rural communities and nations need. This includes scaling new solutions like drought-resistant seeds and artificial intelligence, and embracing old solutions like agroforestry.
National governments everywhere, especially those enduring conflicts, should put climate adaptation and resilience at the heart of their food and security strategies to underscore their importance in development and peacebuilding—and appeal to private sector interests looking to de-risk investments.
—Scale Up Access to Markets, Value Chains, and Technology
Third, we need to invest in micro, small and medium-sized agri-food entrepreneurs and businesses in rural areas to improve the quantity and diversity of the food they produce—so they can get it to markets.
This is the only way they can continue to feed the world in a rapidly changing climate. Yet the range of financial services and products available so these small enterprises can grow and innovate is desperately insufficient.
Nothing less than a sweeping range of investments in rural economies will end hunger and poverty and the instability their condition engenders. Building healthy rural economies that provide decent jobs for young people and food for all is the best weapon we have against conflict and forced migration, and the foundation for the more stable world we all need.
Alvaro Lario is president of the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
