It's 'Clearer Than Ever' Putin Can't Win War: Ex-Belarus Ambassador

A former U.K. ambassador to Belarus has detailed why he believes it is "clearer than ever" that Russia cannot win its war in Ukraine, citing battlefield losses and what he said was an inability to mobilize Russian society.

In an article published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies late last month, Nigel Gould-Davies wrote about Russia's allegation that Ukraine was planning to use a dirty bomb on its own territory in order to blame Russia. Ukraine has strongly denied this allegation, and Western leaders have warned Russia against using the claim as a "pretext for escalation."

Gould-Davies said that Russia's allegation came in the context of some major setbacks for Russian President Vladimir Putin's forces. On one hand, Russian troops have had defeats on several fronts in the war, such as the eastern Kharkiv region and the southern Kherson region. On the other hand, Russia carried out a speedy partial mobilization of military reservists that Russia's Defense Ministry announced had concluded at the end of October, just a little more than a month after Putin announced the draft on September 21.

While the mobilization showed that the Kremlin "realized how badly the war was going, its end would show that the Kremlin understands the risks it faces by imposing excessive demands on Russian society," Gould-Davies wrote.

The partial mobilization, which Putin said would apply only to Russian citizens in the reserves and those who have served in the armed forces with "certain military specialties and relevant experience," brought resistance from Russians. Protests broke out across the country, and more than 370,000 Russian citizens fled the country in the two-week period after the decree was announced.

Even as drafted Russian soldiers have reportedly been entering Ukraine, their arrival does not appear to have changed the course of the war in Russia's favor, Gould-Davies said.

He wrote that Russia cannot win the war and that all it can hope to do at this point is to stop the conflict "by imposing costs and making threats." This includes Russian attacks on Ukraine's critical infrastructure and Russian warnings about a potential nuclear attack, to force the West to "impose a ceasefire on Ukraine" or to create a pretext for nuclear escalation.

Last week, Russia's Foreign Ministry released a statement calling on other nuclear powers to "abandon dangerous attempts to infringe on each other's vital interests, balancing on the brink of direct armed conflict and encouraging provocations" with weapons of mass destruction. The ministry said that those alleged provocations "can lead to catastrophic consequences."

William Reno, a political science professor at Northwestern University, told Newsweek that the statement could be interpreted as a warning "or at least an attempt to see what the Russians can get from the West in terms of concessions."

Reno said that the "trick" is to know when Russia is not bluffing about apparent threats.

Newsweek reached out to the Kremlin for comment.