J.D. Vance's Chances of Beating Tim Ryan With 6 Weeks Left to Campaign

The Ohio Senate race between Republican candidate J.D. Vance and Democratic Congressman Tim Ryan is neck and neck as a new survey shows Ryan ahead by 3 percentage points, six weeks out from the November 8 election.

The Spectrum News/Siena College poll of 642 likely Ohio voters conducted between September 18-22 shows Ryan leading the Donald Trump-endorsed Vance, 46 percent to 43 percent. Ryan has come out ahead in five of eight polls ahead of the midterms, as both men are fighting to replace retiring Republican Senator Rob Portman.

Real Clear Politics still shows Vance with a 1.2-point advantage over Ryan (46.2 percent to 45 percent), taking into account a recent Hill/Emerson College poll conducted September 13 that showed Vance up 4 points (44 percent to 40 percent). The FiveThirtyEight Ohio Senate projection gives Vance a 7-in-10 advantage towards victory, though the race has tightened up in recent weeks.

Cleveland.com reported that Ryan's fundraising totals are far outpacing those of Vance, of which about 92 percent of over $30 million in ad money has come from the Senate Leadership Fund PAC closely associated with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

In the Spectrum News/Siena College poll, Republicans and Democrats cited economics as the main driver for voting. However, while approximately 75 percent of Republicans said it was the biggest issue, only 42 percent of Democrats cited it as theirs.

The second-biggest issue for Democrats was a two-way tie, with "threats to democracy" and abortion each coming in at 36 percent. Abortion anxiety was cited by just 11 percent of Republicans. Meanwhile, immigration is Republicans' second-biggest concern (41 percent).

Ryan has an eight-point advantage in inter-party support, 95 percent among Democrats to Vance's 87 percent of GOP support; a 47-percent-to-35-percent lead among independent voters; a 54-percent-to-34-percent lead among women; and an 84-percent-to-7-percent lead among Black voters.

Vance has a 52-percent-to-39-percent lead among men and a 49-percent-to-41-percent lead among white voters.

In the Ohio gubernatorial race, incumbent Republican Governor Mike DeWine looks poised to win a second term as he leads his Democratic opponent, Nan Whaley, by 23 percentage points (55 percent to 32 percent), according to the new survey.

Don Levy, director of the Siena College Research Institute, told Newsweek on Wednesday that the poll showed an interesting bipartisan overlap between DeWine and Ryan that could ultimately sway the Senate election in Ryan's favor.

"There is an interesting group of voters who are DeWine-Ryan voters," Levy said. "We found that 15 percent of all Ohio voters told us they are voting for DeWine and Ryan, which is a uniquely relative situation in all of the battleground states. We are used to seeing intense partisan divides."

Among Republicans in the poll, 71 percent of them said they had a favorable view of DeWine compared to 23 percent who didn't. Still, Levy points to "little erosion" in DeWine's base of support, which includes an advantage in independents that is shared by Ryan in the Senate race. According to the Spectrum News/Sienna College poll, about 56 percent of independents had a favorable opinion of DeWine compared to Whaley's 16 percent.

Many independents "are just not sold on J.D. Vance," Levy said, adding that Democrats being elected in Ohio is "not totally out of character." For instance, Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown has represented Ohio since 2007.

"Tim Ryan is the kind of Democrat—labor routes, working class—that resonates with a sizable percentage of independents who perhaps lean Republican," Levy added.

Women may also swing things in Ryan's favor.

According to the new survey, about 69 percent of Ohio women voters overall oppose the overturning of Roe v. Wade—while 65 percent of that same demographic disagree with the current Ohio legislation making abortion illegal after the fetal heartbeat can be detected.

"There's no ambiguity amongst women as an overall group that they are unhappy with the Dobbs decision," Levy said.

When asked about variance in polls in the Senate race, Levy said that could be more of a result of methodological variance than accurately pinpointing movement. He did call the Vance-Ryan race "the most engaging" within the close battleground states.

Meanwhile, Ryan campaign spokesperson Jordan Fuja told Newsweek: "While San Francisco fraud J.D. Vance has been campaigning everywhere but Ohio, Tim spent the summer showing up for Ohioans in communities small and large all across the state. Ohio voters know that Tim will fight like hell to make sure their voices are heard in the U.S. Senate, while Vance will continue to sell them out."

Newsweek reached out to the Vance campaign for comment.

The Republican Accountability PAC is launching a $500,000 digital campaign featuring Republican voters in Ohio who plan to vote for Ryan, the Cincinnati Enquirer reported.

The PAC is campaigning against Republican gubernatorial candidates considered election deniers in other states, including Kari Lake in Arizona; Tudox Dixon in Michigan; and Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania.

Update 9/29/22, 11:11 A.M. ET: This story has been updated with comments from the Ryan campaign.