Jim Jordan's Chances of Becoming House Speaker Collapse

Rep. Jim Jordan's hopes of becoming House Speaker are slipping after he lost the second round of voting, according to online prediction markets.

Polymarket, a platform where users can place "yes" or "no" bets on the likelihood of world events, has the Ohio congressman in fourth place on its list of potential candidates to succeed Kevin McCarthy—though Jordan was considered the favorite just a few days ago.

"Yes" predictions for Jordan are trading at 11.9 cents, which Polymarket says is broadly comparable to a 12 percent chance, while "no" predictions are at 90.9 cents.

Patrick McHenry, the speaker pro tempore, is currently top of the board with a 29.8 cent "yes" option, as lawmakers on both sides call for his powers to be extended so the House can get back to passing legislation.

Next is Rep. Tom Emmer, who received one vote for House Speaker in Wednesday's ballot, with "yes" predictions at 15 cents. McCarthy, who received five votes, is in third place at 14.8 cents.

Jordan's chances have shifted sharply since October 13, when he clinched the GOP nomination. On that day, the prediction market had "yes" bets for him trading at 50 cents, better than any other candidate, reported sports betting website DraftKings Network.

At the time, it was unclear whether Jordan could get the 217 House votes needed to be elected House Speaker. He received 152 votes in his party's secret ballot on October 13, but 55 Republicans voted against him.

Newsweek has contacted Jordan's office for comment via email.

In Wednesday's House vote, 22 GOP lawmakers voted for candidates other than Jordan, including McCarthy and Steve Scalise, who got seven votes. Scalise, the House Majority Leader, was previously elected by the GOP as candidate for the speaker role but withdrew his bid after it became clear he would not get the necessary votes on the House floor.

Jordan received 199 votes on Wednesday, one less than the 200 the Ohio congressman got in the first ballot on Tuesday.

A third vote is likely on Thursday, but there is no clear indication that Jordan will be able to persuade enough House Republicans to switch their votes and back his bid—or prevent further defections.

One way to break the deadlock would be to grant the extra powers to McHenry. Both Republican and Democratic figures have said they are open to the idea, so the House can pass legislation about the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, and try to prevent a government shutdown in November.

Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer of Oregon, who has twice voted for McCarthy over Jordan, said in a statement: "Until we can find clear consensus among the Republican conference, it's time to give expanded authority to Speaker Pro Tempore McHenry so the House can resume governing."

The Blue Dog Coalition, a group of centrist House Democrats, previously called for Congress to empower McHenry over concerns that Republican infighting will prevent any GOP candidate from winning enough support.

"We need to eliminate the threat of a government shutdown next month, continue working on the FY2024 appropriations bills, and ensure the people of Israel and Ukraine have what they need to defend themselves against Hamas and Russia," the group said in a statement.

"To that end, the Blue Dog Coalition supports implementing temporary, expanded authorities—at 15 calendar day increments—directing the Speaker Pro Tempore to bring before the House proposed legislation covering only those specific areas."