Jim Justice's Chances of Beating Joe Manchin, According to Polls

Senator Joe Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat, will likely face his most difficult Republican challenger in 2024, should he run for reelection, according to several polls.

West Virginia Governor Jim Justice, 72, filed paperwork on Thursday to win over Manchin's seat. Justice, a Democrat-turned-Republican, was elected in 2016 and had previously waffled on whether he would jump into the ring.

Manchin, 75, a former West Virginia governor who has often been at odds with President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party, has said he wouldn't make a decision on his future until the latter part of 2023. On Thursday however, Manchin's campaign released a vague statement about his future that included his priorities for West Virginia constituents, along with a promise of sorts that he would "win any race" he enters.

A poll published last week by Morning Consult, prior to Justice declaring his candidacy, showed Manchin with 55 percent disapproval in his home state—making him one of the lowest-rated senators nationwide.

West Virginia Representative Alex Mooney, who has been very critical of Manchin and Biden, is the only other Republican who has declared his candidacy. The state's Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, a Republican who ran against Manchin in 2018 and lost, is also reportedly weighing another campaign.

"Justice's main competition for the Republican Senate nomination, Mooney, has been in the race for months and is backed by the Club for Growth—a top GOP outside spending group that will make sure plenty of negative attacks on Justice hit the airwaves," Morning Consult political analyst Cameron Easley told Newsweek on Friday via email. "With the state's legislative session behind him, entering the race now enables Justice to raise money and knock down attacks with his own advertising."

Surveys conducted between January 1 and March 31 of this year from Morning Consult also showed that Justice, who changed his party affiliation less than seven months into his first term, is viewed favorably by about 66 percent of West Virginians based on job performance.

That makes him the fourth-most popular governor in the country after Republican Governor Chris Sununu of New Hampshire, and just above Democratic Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, per polling.

Justice's job approval has actually increased since his office touted his performance last July when he was viewed as the fifth-most popular governor nationwide based on polling from Morning Consult.

Popularity for a governor is not unusual, Easley said Friday, but this "should matter a lot" for West Virginia Republicans who want to flip that important Senate seat.

"Nearly four in five GOP voters approve of Justice's job performance while more than three in five independents do," Easley said. "He's even slightly more popular among Democrats than Manchin (52 percent approval vs. 49 percent approval). While I would expect Democrats to back Manchin by a large margin over Justice in a forced-choice scenario, it's clear that Justice would pose the stiffest competition Manchin has faced in a Senate reelection campaign."

A GOP poll released in February and conducted by The Tarrance Group found that Justice will be Manchin's most formidable opponent if the incumbent senator does run again, Politico reported in February.

Justice had a 30-plus point advantage in a hypothetical GOP primary with Morrisey and Mooney, the survey showed, with the governor receiving 53 percent of support while Morrisey and Mooney received 21 and 16 percent, respectively.

"The data from this study shows that, across every single metric, Governor Jim Justice is far and away the strongest Republican candidate in the U.S. Senate race in West Virginia, and the only tested potential candidate who currently leads Joe Manchin on a trial ballot test," the survey said.

A poll conducted last September by Jackson County radio station WMOV 1360 AM and Oregon-based Triton Polling and Research found that Manchin's support of the "Inflation Reduction Act" led to a 66 percent disapproval rating.

Sam Workman, director of the West Virginia University Institute for Policy Research and Public Affairs, told Newsweek via phone on Thursday that the "Inflation Reduction Act" is "difficult [for some West Virginians] to grapple with in terms of its emphasis on renewable energy."

The "Inflation Reduction Act" was passed by Congress and signed into law by Biden last August. However, Workman cautioned that "it's not as if [Manchin's] lost so much luster in the state," and that he would still be a formidable foe to Justice or any other Republican.

Manchin has hinted at an end-of-year announcement, which Easley said gives him time to "take stock of what could be a pretty nasty GOP primary."

"But I wouldn't be surprised if Manchin ultimately decided not to run again," he added. "His vote for the Inflation Reduction Act has brought his numbers lower than they've ever been before, and he's now working ever so harder to distance himself from it. He not only needs Justice's numbers to come down, but also for his own to improve. That looks like a tall task."

Justice, who according to Forbes, amassed a fortune due to a coal business inherited from his father, was the only billionaire in West Virginia when he won his 2016 gubernatorial election. His net worth of $1.2 billion took a dip when he changed his political affiliation.

A spokesperson from Manchin's office told Newsweek via email on Friday that they had no comment regarding Justice's candidacy.

Newsweek reached out via email to Justice's office for comment.