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President Joe Biden is now considered the favorite to win the 2024 election over Donald Trump, according to an online prediction market.
Polymarket, a platform where users can place "yes" or "no" bets on the likelihood of world events, is currently listing the president as having a 45 percent chance of winning in November, narrowly ahead of Trump on 44 percent.
The results represent a remarkable turnaround in Biden's reelection hopes. In February, Polymarket gave Trump a 54 percent chance of re-entering the White House, with Biden 21 points behind at 33 percent. By March 25, Biden had chipped away Trump's lead to 10 points (50 percent chance to 40 percent) before overtaking the Republican on April 16.
"Big day on Polymarket: Biden just flipped Trump," the betting company posted on X, formerly Twitter, while sharing the results.
Biden and Trump's campaign teams have been contacted for comment via email.
The latest prediction arrives as the president has seen a series of other positive poll results in recent weeks showing him beating Trump, or cutting into his Republican rival's lead as the incumbent gathers much-needed momentum heading into November.
Elsewhere, 270toWin, a poll aggregation website, is currently showing Biden marginally ahead of Trump (44.1 percent to 43.8 percent), based on an average of the six most recent national surveys.
Biden's improvement in the polls, having long recorded poor approval ratings and concerns about his age, come as Trump began his historic "hush money" trial in New York on Monday.
Trump became the first former U.S. president to face criminal prosecution when he appeared in court for the trial. The former president has pleaded not guilty to 34 felony charges in relation to a $130,000 sum he arranged for his former lawyer Michael Cohen to pay adult film star Stormy Daniels to keep an alleged affair she had with Trump a secret ahead of the 2016 election. The money was listed in Trump's company records as "legal fees," which prosecutors argue was part of an unlawful attempt to influence the outcome of the 2016 presidential race.
Trump admits reimbursing the money to Cohen but denies having an affair with Daniels. Trump has alleged the criminal proceeding is a politically motivated "witch hunt" that aims to hinder his 2024 election chances.
"The whole world is watching this New York legal system. This is really ELECTION INTERFERENCE," Trump posted on Truth Social on Tuesday.
"It all comes out of Washington because they are losing badly in the polls! You know what we're going to be doing, right? We're going to be SAVING AMERICA!!!"
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About the writer
Ewan Palmer is a Newsweek News Reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is reporting on US politics, and Florida ... Read more