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A polling company that accurately predicted the outcome of the 2020 election has suggested President Joe Biden will struggle to win re-election to the White House.
According to the analysis of the Presidential Leadership Index, produced by Investor's Business Daily (IBD) and TIPP Insights, Biden is currently showing "significant" vulnerability in 18 key demographics heading into November's race, up from just five in November.
The results are yet another warning about Biden's chances of winning the next general election, which will presumably be against Republican Donald Trump. Biden has long faced concerns about his poor polling numbers and approval ratings, as well as suggestions from both Republican and Democrat voters that the 81-year-old is too old to run for office again.
The Presidential Leadership Index looks at how voters perceive a president based on three metrics: favorability, job approval and leadership. The results are examined over a three-month period compared to the president's average during his time in office to determine whether a president is gaining or losing momentum with key demographics.
The latest Presidential Leadership Index shows that Biden is currently receiving "significant" negative momentum from 18 groups, including white men and women, independent and moderate voters and young adults aged between 18-24. Two of the 18 demographics are conservatives and Republicans who are unlikely to be supporting Biden regardless.
The Presidential Leadership Index also shows that Biden is currently showing "considerable" negative momentum among nine demographic groups, including suburban and rural voters, those with college degrees or higher, as well as Black and Hispanic voters.
"Our momentum analysis shows that Biden's standing among Americans has weakened significantly in the past three months. He faces headwinds among a broad spectrum of Americans," the TIPP Insights editorial board wrote.
"If Biden is the Democratic Party's candidate, the incumbency does not work to his advantage, and the chances of returning to the White House look slim at best."
The White House has been contacted for comment via email.
In November 2020, The Washington Post named IBD/TIPP polling the most accurate of the last election after predicting that Biden would beat Trump in the popular vote by four percent. At the time, Biden was leading the national popular vote by 3.8 percent, and would go on to win by 4.5 percent in what was a record-breaking turnout.
According to FiveThirtyEight's national polling average, Biden is currently recording an approval rating of 38.7 percent, which is lower than what Trump was recording at the same stage of his one term in office (43.1 percent).
Elsewhere, a British betting company said that Biden's chances of winning the 2024 election has been damaged by the release of Special Counsel Robert Hur's report into the president's handling of Obama-era classified documents.
While Hur said criminal charges were not warranted against Biden, the report was severely critical of Biden's cognitive ability, including suggesting his memory was "significantly limited."
Bookmakers Betfair have since reduced the odds of Biden securing re-election from 2/1 to 14/5.
"Biden has been a fairly significant drifter in the Election Winner market, but this report, compounded by another memory lapse, is seeing punters viewing Trump as the safer bet with their money," Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom told Newsweek.
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About the writer
Ewan Palmer is a Newsweek News Reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is reporting on US politics, and Florida ... Read more