Joe Biden May Lose a 16-Year Record in Critical Battleground State

President Joe Biden could lose Nevada, a state won by Democrats for the past 16 years, in the upcoming presidential election, according to recent polling.

In 2020, Biden won the battleground state against then-President Donald Trump by a slim 2.4-point margin (50.1 to 47.7 percent). This year's election in November will likely be a rematch between Biden, the Democratic incumbent, and Trump, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee. But will Biden land another victory in Nevada?

According to a Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research poll conducted from May 19 to 21, 50 percent of Nevadans said they would vote for Trump, while 42 percent said Biden. The poll surveyed 522 Nevada adults and while a margin of error was not assigned to the poll, a poll of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

Meanwhile, in a Prime Group/Citizens to Save Our Republic (CSOR) poll conducted from May 9 to 16, Biden and Trump were tied. When surveying 468 Nevadans, 50 percent said they'd vote for Biden and 50 percent said they'd support Trump. The credibility interval, which can be interpreted in the same way as a margin of error, is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. CSOR is a bipartisan anti-Trump super PAC (political action committee).

Biden falls behind Trump again in a BSG/GS Strategy Group/The Cook Political Report poll. In the poll conducted from May 6 to 13, Trump got 49 percent of voter support in Nevada while Biden got 40 percent. The poll surveyed 402 Nevadan likely voters. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. GS Strategy Group is a Republican polling firm and BSG is a Democratic one.

It's important to note that polling results in any state can vary, especially months out of the election. Nevada is a particularly difficult state to get accurate polling data from, according to a Nevada spokesperson for the Biden campaign who spoke with Newsweek via telephone on Friday.

Tai Sims, the communications director for the Nevada Democratic Party, told Newsweek via email on Friday, "Nevadans have a choice between President Biden, who got our economy back on track, and Donald Trump, who will ban abortion and stands with the corporate landlords squeezing our families."

Sims added: "Nevada Democrats have built an overwhelming campaign infrastructure advantage over Trump, who is closing down offices and has stocked his Nevada operation with indicted fake electors. Nevada Democrats never take any vote for granted and we will continue to grow our coalitions that will ultimately lead us to victory in November."

Newsweek also reached out to Trump's campaign via email for comment.

Nevada has a mixed voting history. In the 1980s, Republicans took the presidency in all three elections of the decade. From the 1990s up until 2008, Democrats and Republicans won the state in the presidential election. Since former President Barack Obama's first election, the state has solely elected Democrats, albeit by a thin margin in recent years.

In 2008, then-Illinois Senator Obama won Nevada against the now-late Arizona Senator John McCain by a 12.5-point margin (55.2 to 42.7 percent). Obama won Nevada again in 2012 by a 6.7-point margin (52.4 to 45.7 percent) against former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who went on to become a Utah senator in 2019.

Obama won both national elections, with Biden serving as his vice president. While the same cannot be said about former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton who lost the national 2016 election to Trump, she did win Nevada by a 2.4-point margin (47.9 to 45.5 percent).

Update 5/24/24, 4:38 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with comment from Sims and background information.

Update 5/24/24, 5:16 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with additional information.

Update 5/24/24, 9:10 p.m. ET: The headline was changed.

Update 5/25/24, 11:17 a.m. ET: This article has been updated with additional information.