Joe Biden Faces Disastrous Defeat if RFK Jr Runs as Third Party Candidate

A third of Democratic voters would likely vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. if he runs as an independent in the 2024 presidential election, according to a new survey, potentially handing victory to Donald Trump.

The Rasmussen Reports poll found 57 percent of likely Democratic voters plan to support Biden in the Democratic primaries, as opposed to 25 percent for Kennedy, three percent for Marianne Williamson and seven percent for any other candidate.

Kennedy, the nephew of murdered President John F. Kennedy, has emerged as Joe Biden's closest challenger for the 2024 Democratic Party since announcing his White House bid in April. Despite his party affiliation, Kennedy has received a sympathetic hearing from many conservatives, thanks to his coronavirus vaccine scepticism, with Fox News star Sean Hannity describing him as the Democrats' "best option" to beat Biden.

According to the Rasmussen Report survey, 41 percent of Democrats have an at least somewhat favorable view of Kennedy along with 56 percent of Republicans and 49 percent of those without party affiliation. In total 49 percent of likely voters view Kennedy favorably, including 14 percent for very favorably, whilst 37 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.

If the Democrats and Republicans nominate Biden and Trump respectively, and Kennedy runs as an independent, 33 percent of Democratic voters would "likely" vote for him according to the poll, including 14 percent who would be "very likely" to back him.

Among likely voters as a whole, 25 percent said they would likely vote for Kennedy if he runs against Biden and Trump, including 14 percent of Republicans, with 10 percent saying they are "very likely" to cast their ballots this way.

Speaking to Newsweek a Kennedy campaign spokesperson said: "The fact that President Biden is so unpopular that fully a third of Democrats would vote for an independent candidate in the general election underscores the importance of running a fair and competitive primary election.

"If the DNC [Democratic National Convention] fails to do that, it will likely be saddled with a weak candidate who lacks the popular appeal to defeat the Republicans—whether or not there is a strong third party candidate in the race."

Rasmussen Reports polled 998 "U.S. likely voters" by telephone and online survey from September 17-18.

Had 33 percent of Biden's voters backed a third party candidate in 2020 he would have lost just under 27 million votes, easily handing Donald Trump a second term in the White House. Newsweek has also contacted the White House for comment by email.

Kennedy has requested Secret Service protection from the president after an armed man was arrested on Friday near an event where he was speaking, whilst falsely claiming to be part of his security team. The incident took place near the Wilshire Ebell Theatre where Kennedy was delivering an address to mark Hispanic Heritage Month, less than two miles from where his father, Senator Robert F. Kennedy, was assassinated in 1968.

In an open letter to Biden, Dennis Kucinich, a former Democratic congressman and Kennedy's campaign manager, wrote: "The threat level to our candidate, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., is increasing every day. He is not the only one in danger—every person who attends a campaign event is at risk. A specter of violence haunts our political process. Indeed, political assassinations pose a grave threat to democracy.

"It is astonishing that under such circumstances, you would deny Secret Service coverage to Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has polled more than 20% in the first five primary states, and whose net favorability rating exceeds both yours and Donald Trump's."

Update 9/22/23 3:10 a.m. ET: This story has been updated with comment from Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s presidential campaign.