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New polling has suggested that President Joe Biden is weaker politically than previous incumbents seeking reelection.
A Gallup poll released on February 2 says just 38 percent of voters believe he deserves a second term. The figure is 12 percent lower than his likely Republican opponent former President Donald Trump, who scored 50 percent in January 2020.
Voters have expressed concerns over the border, inflation, the withdrawal from Afghanistan, and Biden's age, among other issues, putting his estimated voter approval rating at just 38.9 percent, according to analysis website FiveThirtyEight. Around 55 percent of American voters say they disapprove of the Biden presidency.
The Gallup "early estimate" is not necessarily indicative of an overall election performance, however. Trump went on to lose the 2020 presidential election, while President George H.W. Bush's recorded a score of 49 percent before he lost the 1992 election to Bill Clinton.
Newsweek has approached the Biden campaign for comment via email out of hours.
Gallup said Biden can "take some solace" in that "voter sentiment about whether a president deserves reelection has often changed over the course of prior election years."
Trump and Bush Sr. lost by seven and eight points respectively among voters by the time of the "final estimate" taken close to the election.
Presidents Barack Obama and Clinton scored 43 and 44 percent respectively in early estimate polling by Gallup. Both presidents, who secured a second term, recovered in the months leading up to polling day.
Around 50 percent of voters said Obama deserved the second term he secured at the expense of Mitt Romney in 2012, while Clinton recovered to 56 percent in 1996 before beating Republican Bob Dole.
But Biden has another factor to deal with that previous incumbents did not—his age. If he were to secure a second term, Biden would be 86 at the close of his presidency and while the White House has maintained he is healthy both physically and cognitively, numerous gaffes have done little to convince voters.
A poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research released in August said 77 percent of voters thought Biden was too old for a second term. This was a view shared among 69 percent of Democrats who responded to the poll.
A matchup against Trump
Age might be a factor for Trump, too, although the former president also insists he is in excellent cognitive condition. Trump will be 78 at the start of a new term if he were to win the 2024 election.
A Reuters/Ipsos survey of 1,250 says 48 percent of people think Trump is too old to run again, including a third of Republicans. The same poll showed Trump beating Biden in a one-on-one matchup, however.
A new poll of 1,000 registered voters by NBC News also found that Trump is ahead of Biden by 23 points on the question of if either candidate has "the necessary physical and mental health to be president."
Newsweek has approached a Trump spokesperson for comment via email out of hours.
Some polling is more positive for Biden. A Quinnipiac University survey from January 25-29 put Biden six points ahead of Trump in a one-on-one matchup, with Biden beating Trump by eight points among independents.
About the writer
Benjamin Lynch is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is U.S. politics and national affairs and he ... Read more