Joe Biden Faces Unlikely 2024 Threat

Across the United States, 68 percent of eligible voters would either "strongly support" or "support" Vice President Kamala Harris challenging Joe Biden for the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination, according to a new poll.

The Redfield & Wilton Strategies survey, conducted exclusively for Newsweek, found a plurality of voters would back Biden facing a primary challenge from Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg or Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.

Concern has been raised over whether the 81-year-old Biden has the mental and physical stamina to serve a full second term in the White House, at the end of which he'd be 86 years old. A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll conducted in November found 64 percent of respondents didn't want Biden to run again, against just 29 percent who supported his bid.

According to the Redfield & Wilson Strategies poll, some 36 percent of eligible U.S. voters would "strongly support" Harris running against Biden for the Democratic nomination, with another 32 percent saying they would "support" such a bid. By comparison, 11 percent said they would "oppose" or "strongly oppose" a run, with the remainder either saying they would "neither support nor oppose" a Harris bid or that they didn't know.

For Newsom, 25 percent of respondents said they would "strongly support" a campaign for the 2024 Democratic nomination, with another 26 percent for "support" against just 8 percent who were either opposed or strongly opposed.

In total, 48 percent of voters either "support" or "strongly support" Buttigieg, who ran against Biden in 2020, challenging Biden for the Democratic nomination, versus 11 percent who are opposed.

There was also a plurality of support for Sanders, a leftist independent senator aligned with the Democrats, who ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic presidential nomination in both 2016 and 2020. Of those surveyed, 22 percent said they would "strongly support" a third Sanders bid, with another 29 percent for "support," while the total of "oppose" and "strongly oppose" came to 22 percent.

Amongst the potential candidates surveyed, only West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, a Democrat associated with the right of the party, didn't have a plurality in favor of challenging Biden. Some 24 percent would "support" or "strongly support" a Manchin bid, while 27 percent would be either "opposed" or "strongly opposed."

On November 9, Manchin announced he won't be running to defend his West Virginia Senate seat in 2024, providing an opportunity to Republicans in the traditionally red state. He commented: "After months of deliberation and long conversations with my family, I believe in my heart of hearts that I have accomplished what I set out to do for West Virginia."

Redfield & Wilton Strategies surveyed 1,500 eligible voters in the U.S. online on December 19. Newsweek reached out to President Biden and Vice President Harris via the White House press office for comment.

While the poll showed a clear desire for additional Democratic challengers, it also found 53 percent of American voters believe Biden will end up clinching the party's 2024 presidential nomination, well ahead of Dean Philips, who is the second highest-ranked candidate on 5 percent. However, 12 percent said they thought "another candidate" would win, while 27 percent replied that they didn't know.

Biden's approval rating continued to fall in 2023 despite an improving economy according to an analysis conducted by polling website FiveThirtyEight. On December 8, it found that 37.8 percent of Americans were satisfied with the president's performance versus 55.5 percent who were dissatisfied.