Joe Biden in 'Jeopardy' as Multiple Counties Swing Toward Donald Trump

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Voters in Pennsylvania counties are swinging toward Donald Trump in what comes as the latest polling nightmare for President Joe Biden.

In the last few weeks, the Democrat has been hit with a series of damaging polls suggesting he might not win the 2024 presidential elections, with the findings even sparking calls within his own party to step aside.

Now, a survey by Big Data Poll found that in the state of Pennsylvania, voters are being swayed increasingly by former President Trump, Biden's most likely rival in the election.

After asking voters who they would vote for if the 2024 presidential election were held today, the polling company ascertained that the former president leads Biden by 3.5 points in the state.

Newsweek reached out to representatives for Biden via email for comment.

Big Data Poll interviewed 1,382 registered voters from November 16 to November 19. The overall sampling error is 2.6 percent. Counties where voters said they would back Trump included Lackawanna, Monroe, Northampton and Lehigh, the poll found.

In the 2020 presidential election, the state flipped to Democrats by a narrow 1.17 percent margin. Trump had won the state in 2016 by a similarly narrow margin of 0.72 percent.

Rich Baris, director of Big Data Poll, said the data put Biden in "jeopardy."

"Look at Trump's strength in Allegheny County, and frankly, even in Philadelphia County. Plus, where he performs the strongest juxtaposed to other Republicans, meaning the Northeast, is just stunning," Baris said.

"Regarding the Northeast, this time the following counties are really in jeopardy for Joe Biden: Lackawanna and Monroe. Plus eastern central counties: Northampton and Lehigh, and Southeastern: (potentially) Bucks."

Joe Biden at APEC summit
President Joe Biden speaks during the APEC CEO Summit on November 16, 2023, in San Francisco, California. A new poll has shown Pennsylvania voters are swinging toward Donald Trump. Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

It comes after The New York Times and Siena College published a poll on November 5 showing that voters are backing Trump by margins of 4 to 10 percentage points in five of six important battleground states one year prior to the 2024 election.

Biden is currently struggling in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. He is ahead in Wisconsin, the sixth battleground state, by 2 percentage points.

The poll showed that by a 59 percent to 37 percent margin, voters trusted Trump over Biden on the economy. Voters preferred Trump on immigration by 12 points, on national security by 12 points, and on the Israeli-Palestine conflict by 11 points.

Meanwhile, a Harvard-Harris poll released last month found that 58 percent of voters say they have doubts about his fitness for office, and 67 percent said he was too old to be president. The survey was taken of 2,116 registered voters on October 18 and 19.

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About the writer

Kate Plummer is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on U.S. politics and national affairs, and she is particularly interested in the impact of social policy decisions on people as well as the finances of political campaigns, corruption, foreign policy, democratic processes and more. Prior to joining Newsweek, she covered U.K. politics extensively. Kate joined Newsweek in 2023 from The Independent and has also been published in multiple publications including The Times and the Daily Mail. She has a B.A. in History from the University of Oxford and an M.A. in Magazine Journalism from City, University of London.

Languages: English.

You can get in touch with Kate by emailing k.plummer@newsweek.com, or by following her on X at @kateeplummer.


Kate Plummer is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on U.S. politics and national affairs, and ... Read more