Joe Biden's Chances of Winning Election Cut by Bookmakers

The odds on President Joe Biden securing a second White House term improved after he and former President Donald Trump raised the delegates needed to secure their respective party's nominations on Tuesday, according to a leading bookmaker.

Victories for Trump and Biden in Georgia, Mississippi, Washington and for the former, Hawaii, turned the two rivals into the main presumptive nominees for November's election, though it won't be formally decided until the parties hold their national conventions in the summer.

Following primary victories on Tuesday, the Betfair odds on Biden winning reelection in November were reduced from 2/1, or 33.3 percent, to 15/8, or 35 percent. Trump's odds remained unchanged at 11/10, or 48 percent, after his primary triumphs.

Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom told Newsweek that a clear plurality of bettors expect Trump to win the 2024 presidential election, but that Biden's position has improved over the past week.

"Looking at the odds for the next presidential election, it's Donald Trump that is dominating, he is the 11/10 favorite, and has been leading the market since September last year," Rosbottom said. "There has been £12.5 million [about $16 million] wagered on the Betfair Exchange market and 44 percent of that has been for Trump, punters [bettors] have been consistently backing him to return to the White House.

"However, Joe Biden has been the bigger mover in the market recently and he's closing the gap on Trump. Since Super Tuesday, his odds to win four more years have shortened from 13/5 to 15/8."

Rosbottom predicted that the market will "continue to move for both candidates" in the run-up to November's vote "as we get various court cases, conferences and debates."

Newsweek has contacted representatives of Biden's and Trump's presidential campaigns for comment by email.

Betfair is also offering odds on who the Republican vice presidential candidate will be, with South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem leading at 4/1, or 20 percent. She is followed by Senator Tim Scott at 4/1, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy at 11/1, former Democratic Representative Tulsi Gabbard at 11/1, Representative Elise Stefanik at 13/1, Nikki Haley at 15/1 and Ben Carson at 16/1.

A straw poll conducted at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), which took place in Maryland last month, found that Noem and Ramaswamy, both Trump supporters, were the favorite potential Republican vice presidential candidates with 15 percent of the vote each.

They were followed by Gabbard, who has become a regular on conservative media, with 9 percent, then Stefanik and Scott, both at 8 percent. The poll of 1,478 CPAC attendees was conducted by McLaughlin & Associates for conservative-leaning network Real America's Voice on February 24.

A string of recent polls have shown Biden with a slim lead over Trump among voters in a presidential matchup between the two.

A Kaiser Family Foundation survey of 1,072 registered voters conducted between February 20 and 28 put Biden at 47 percent against Trump's 44 percent.

An Emerson College poll had Biden at 51 percent versus 49 percent for Trump. The survey of 1,350 registered voters was conducted between March 5 and 6.

A Morning Consult survey showed Biden at 44 percent against 43 percent for Trump. For the poll, 6,334 registered voters were surveyed between March 1 and 5.