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A third party presidential bid by Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia could have a major impact on the 2024 race and siphon votes away from President Joe Biden.
The senator was asked about a potential presidential run during a No Labels forum at St. Anselm College in New Hampshire and didn't rejected the possibility that he could run against Biden in 2024.
That could be a political headache for the president amid concerns that a serious third party challenger could siphon votes away from him, potentially leading to victory for the Republican candidate.
Former President Donald Trump remains the favorite to win the GOP's 2024 presidential nomination and No Labels has said it will field presidential and vice presidential candidates if Trump and Biden are both on the ballot again.
Manchin dismissed the idea that he could act as a spoiler candidate.
"I've never been in any race I've ever spoiled. I've been in races to win," the senator said on Monday. "And if I get in a race, I'm going to win."
On Monday night, Manchin told CNN's Kaitlan Collins: "I haven't made any decision, nor will I make a decision until the end of the year."
Manchin, who represents West Virginia, is considered a moderate or conservative Democrat and he also told Collins that Biden has been "been pushed too far left" but "has the strength to fight back."
Former North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory, who is national co-chair of No Labels, said on Monday: "We will present a president and vice president candidate on a No Labels ticket if Biden and Trump are on track to win their parties' nominations."
"We plan to do that. But only if we see we have an opportunity to win," he said. The group will reportedly make a decision after Super Tuesday when there should be a clear indication of who the Republican and Democratic candidates will be.
Manchin is up for re-election in the Senate in 2024 and could be in for a tough race, with West Virginia's Republican Governor Jim Justice challenging him for his seat.
While it may be too early to imagine a Manchin presidential ticket, political scientists who spoke to Newsweek said the possibility would be concerning for Biden.
Newsweek has reached out to Manchin's office and the Biden campaign via email for comment.
An Opaque Candidacy
Manchin's motivations in not ruling out a presidential bid could have more to do with his position in the Senate and the Democratic Party than a genuine desire to run.
"Joe Manchin remains a conundrum wrapped in an enigma for political strategists. While on the surface he seems a straight shooter in answering every question thrown at him, he does so in a way that often teases and rarely delivers full clarity," said Mark Shanahan, an associate professor in politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K., co-editor of The Trump Presidency: From Campaign Trail to World Stage.
"At this stage it's not at all clear if Manchin's plans for 2024 include running for re-election in his West Virginia Senate seat; having a tilt at the White House or just saying so long to D.C. and retiring," he told Newsweek.
"What is clear is that he wants to remain relevant. He's no longer the swing vote in a 50:50 Senate, so dangling a possible presidential bid keeps him firmly in the headlines," Shanahan said.
Shanahan added that "what a Manchin candidacy under the No Labels banner would mean is just as opaque."
Cannibalizing Votes
A Manchin presidential bid looks unlikely to be successful but it could have a major impact on the 2024 race, according to Thomas Gift, founding director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, U.K.
"The likely margins between a Biden vs. Trump rematch are so thin that any legitimate third party candidate could prove decisive," Gift told Newsweek.
"If the No Labels group can convince a well-known name like Joe Manchin to throw his hat in the ring, it could upend the dimensions of the race," he said.
"Winning without an 'R' or 'D' beside your name might be impossible, but that doesn't mean a third party candidate couldn't determine the next president simply by cannibalizing votes," Gift said.
A Tight Contest
A Manchin presidential bid could have profound effects both on the election and its aftermath—including making problems for Trump's re-election bid.
"Third party candidates don't win presidential elections but they can lose them in a tight contest—look at the impact of Ralph Nader on Al Gore in 2000," Shanahan told Newsweek.
"They can also change the course of campaigning. Remember the impact Ross Perot's populism had on both George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton's campaigns in 1992, and indeed on Clinton's subsequent first term policy making," he said.
Shanahan noted that Manchin "as a right-leaning Democrat would take votes away from Biden."
"But if Donald Trump wins the GOP nomination, Manchin would likely sweep up a large number of moderate Republican votes, so the potential headaches he'd cause swing both ways," he said.
"The biggest Democrat headache is if Manchin does not run for Senate re-election," Shanahan said, adding that Manchin is the only Democrat "ever likely to win what's essentially a deep red seat."
"Both Joe Biden and the Democrat congressional leadership will be working hard over the second half of 2023 to keep the West Virginian on Capitol Hill," he said.
About the writer
Darragh Roche is a U.S. News Reporter based in Limerick, Ireland. His focus is reporting on U.S. politics. He has ... Read more