Joe Manchin Gives Republicans an Early Christmas Gift

Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia announced Thursday he will not run for reelection in 2024.

Given the common perception that West Virginia is a deep red state, Manchin's decision would likely be seen by Republicans as a chance to take the seat he has held since 2010.

"After months of deliberation and long conversations with my family, I believe in my heart of hearts that I have accomplished what I set out to do for West Virginia," Manchin said in a statement.

He continued: "I have made one of the toughest decisions of my life and decided that I will not be running for re-election to the United States Senate. But what I will be doing is traveling the country and speaking out to see if there is an interest in creating a movement to mobilize the middle and bring Americans together."

Julián Castro, a member of former President Barack Obama's Cabinet and a Democratic candidate for president in 2020, reacted to the news on X (formerly Twitter).

"Joe Manchin's retirement almost certainly means Democrats will lose the WV Senate seat," wrote the former housing and urban development secretary. "You know where they can pick one up this time? In Texas by defeating Ted Cruz next November. Best pickup opportunity on the map this cycle."

West Virginia's status as one of the country's most conservative states was typified during the so-called "blue wave" of 2018's elections, as Manchin narrowly won, by just more than three percentage points.

Jay Townshend, non-partisan political consultant, told Newsweek that it "is highly likely Manchin's seat will go Republican."

"Some Democrat Senate incumbents represent hard-to-win states, so it increases the likelihood that Republicans will gain control of the Senate in 2024," Townshend said. "And Manchin, though he often bucked his party, was usually a reliable vote for the Democratic caucus."

As Townshend noted, Manchin has often been a thorn in the side for his own party, particularly for President Joe Biden. Manchin has frequently clashed with the president on legislation regarding everything from climate change to the Inflation Reduction Act.

D. Stephen Voss, political analyst and associate professor of political science at the University of Kentucky, also feels "West Virginia is prime hunting ground for the GOP, and running against a Democrat who lacks the incumbency advantage will only make their path to victory easier."

"That said: Democrats can win in heavily Republican territory, just as Republicans can win in heavily Democratic territory. Politically lopsided states regularly fill their Senate seats and their governor's mansions with politicians from the minority party," Voss told Newsweek. "Cross-party elections may have become less frequent recently, but that's not primarily because voters refuse to shop around. It's because moderates with crossover potential rarely run for higher office, and when they do, they struggle to attract support from party leaders, activists, and campaign contributors."

He added: "Democrats in West Virginia will need to decide whether they're ready to hunt where the votes are, and conservative activists there need to decide whether they'll make it easier for the Democrats by driving the Republican nominee to the hard right."

As for why Manchin decided to leave the Senate, GOP strategist John Feehery told Newsweek that perhaps Manchin feared he could not beat the challengers for his Senate seat.

Feehery also mentioned how the West Virginia lawmaker didn't reject the possibility of running against Biden for president in 2024 when he was asked about the possibility during a forum hosted by the centrist, nonprofit organization No Labels.

"This pretty much guarantees that the Senate will be 50/50 and given the map, increases the chances for Republicans taking the Senate to about 85 percent," Feehery said. "That is good for Trump should he win reelection and bad for Biden should he win reelection."

Update 11/09/23, 5:23 p.m. ET: This article has been updated to include more background information and comments.