Senate Democrats Slim Majority May Soon Get Even Smaller

Senate Democrats could see an even slimmer majority than the already-razor-thin edge they hold right now as a key swing member of their caucus considers leaving the party.

Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia is "thinking seriously" about switching his party affiliation from Democrat to independent, threatening to bring down the number of Senate seats held by Democrats from 48 to 47. Republicans currently hold 49 Senate seats, but with three independent senators who all caucus with the Democrats, the Democratic Party still holds a narrow majority.

Asked about becoming an independent, Manchin told West Virginia radio host, Hoppy Kercheval, "I would think very seriously about that. I've been thinking about that for quite some time. I haven't made any decisions whatsoever on any of my political direction."

Manchin has long been a powerful swing vote in the Senate, oftentimes at the frustrations of his own party.

Widely viewed as a centrist Democrat, Manchin has opposed key policies on the Democratic agenda, including Medicare for All, the Green New Deal, abolishing the filibuster and expanding the Supreme Court, much to the dismay of his colleagues. He has frequently been joined in those positions by Senator Kyrsten Sinema, who switched her party affiliation from Democrat to independent in December.

Newsweek reached out to Senate Leader Chuck Schumer via email for comment.

Manchin said on Thursday that he was weighing becoming an independent because he was neither happy with the image of the Democratic Party nor the Republican Party.

"The brand has become so bad, the D brand and R brand," Manchin said. "In West Virginia, the D brand because it's nationally bad. It's not the Democrats in West Virginia. It's the Democrats in Washington or the Washington policies of the Democrats. You've heard me say a million times that I'm not a Washington Democrat."

"I want to make sure my voice is truly an independent voice, when I'm speaking I'm speaking about the good the Republicans do and the good the Democrats continue to do," the senator said.

It's been speculated since 2021 that the West Virginia Democrat would change his party affiliation, but he's repeatedly dismissed those rumors and insisted that he's had no intention of "changing anything." His latest remarks mark the strongest signal that there is a possibility he could leave the party.

His comments also come amid what is expected to be a tough re-election next year. If he runs, Manchin would face a very difficult race in his home state which has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton in 1996. Former President Donald Trump carried West Virginia by over 67 percent in both 2016 and 2020.

The Republican frontrunner for Manchin's seat is popular Governor Jim Justice, who is serving the same office that Manchin held from 2005 to 2010.

Likewise, Sinema is also projected to be facing an uphill battle in Arizona, where a re-election campaign would put her in a three-way race against a Democrat and a Republican. Polls show that both the frontrunners for the Democratic nominee, Representative Ruben Gallego, and the Republican nominee, former gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, are shoring up more support than the incumbent senator.

Manchin said he has not made a decision on whether or not he'll run for re-election and he has also openly flirted with running a third-party campaign for the presidency against sitting President Joe Biden. The developments have alarmed Democrats, who fear that such a campaign would steal enough votes away from Biden to hand Republicans a 2024 victory.