Kamala Harris Just Took Lead Over Trump in 5th Swing State: Polling Average

Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the lead over former President Donald Trump in a fifth critical swing state, according to Nate Silver's polling average on his Silver Bulletin website.

The Democratic presidential ticket has seen a dramatic reversal in the polls since President Joe Biden made the unprecedented decision to drop out of the race on July 21 and endorse his VP. Harris, now formally the Democrats' nominee, has surged in the polls—leading Trump in national and swing state polling averages whereas Biden was generally behind.

Silver was the founder of ABC News' FiveThirtyEight polling analysis site but parted ways with ABC last year. On Wednesday, he wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that Harris now leads Trump in Arizona, according to his Silver Bulletin polling average. The average shows Harris with 45.3 percent, compared with Trump's 44 percent, in the state.

"Today's update. Another good day for HARRIS, who now leads in our polling average in Arizona and is only 6/10ths of a point down in North Carolina," Silver wrote.

The analyst's averages already had Harris narrowly ahead in Michigan (46.4 percent to Trump's 42.5 percent), Nevada (44.9 percent to 44 percent), Pennsylvania (46.4 percent to 44.1 percent) and Wisconsin (47.5 percent to 43.6 percent).

As Silver pointed out, she is still down in North Carolina, according to his average, but the race is tight—45.4 percent for the vice president, compared with 46 percent for the former president.

Newsweek reached out by email to the Harris campaign for comment.

During a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida last week, Trump told reporters, "I'm leading by a lot" without citing specific polls.

Team Trump Arizona Communications Director Halee Dobbins told Newsweek: "Years of the Harris-Biden administration's failed policies have made living in Arizona harder, less safe and have prompted historic inflation making food, housing and gas more expensive.

"Kamala Harris' open border agenda has normalized a migrant invasion and created a deadly stream of fentanyl flowing into our communities. Arizona voters are eager for a return to President Trump's prosperous and successful policies that secured our state and made life affordable," Dobbins said.

How Does Silver's Data Compare?

FiveThirtyEight's average for Arizona, which was last updated on Thursday, also shows Harris narrowly ahead of Trump. The average has her at 45.4 percent and the former president at 44.6 percent. The ABC site also shows Harris up over Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin but narrowly down by 0.2 percent in Nevada.

The Hill's polling average, which was last updated on Wednesday, shows Trump narrowly ahead in Arizona—47.3 percent to Harris' 46.6 percent. The Hill does show Harris up in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but Trump is ahead in Nevada by 2.3 points.

What About Historical Precedent?

Biden very narrowly beat Trump in Arizona in 2020. The president won 49.4 percent of the state's votes, compared with Trump's 49.1 percent—with a margin of less than 10,500 votes.

Biden's win in the Southwestern state marked the first time a Democratic presidential nominee had carried it since 1996. The president also beat out Trump in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump won in North Carolina.

Update 8/15/24, 12:52 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with comments from a Trump campaign spokesperson in Arizona.