Kamala Harris Dealt Polling Blow in Key Swing State in Post-Debate Poll

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A new poll of voters in the key swing state of Michigan after Tuesday's presidential debate showed former president Donald Trump leading Vice President Harris by one point.

The survey of 800 voters by InsiderAdvantage showed the Republican candidate at 49 percent and his Democratic rival at 48 percent.

Thursday's findings show the continuing tight nature of the 2024 election, which has seen both candidates take the lead in various national and state-level polls.

Trump's lead, however slight, could prove a disadvantage to Harris, who will be hoping to secure Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania's Electoral College votes to get the 270 needed to win the White House.

kamala harris polling post debate
US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris arrives to speak at a campaign rally at the Bojangles Coliseum in Charlotte, North Carolina, on September 12, 2024. Donald Trump out performed Kamala Harris in... Jim WATSON / AFP/Getty Images

"It appears that the debate had little or no impact on the contest, particularly among independent voters, in this particular state," InsiderAdvantage wrote in its analysis. "The race remains extremely competitive both in Michigan and likely all of the battleground states."

Pundits have been somewhat divided over who won Tuesday night's debate in Philadelphia, but many have put Harris as the frontrunner.

One Republican pollster put the Democrat three points ahead of Trump, while other surveys showed clear differences between registered members of each party on who they viewed as the winner.

Michigan has been a key battleground state for the past several elections. While it remained Republican from 1972 through 1988, it switched to blue in 1992 and stayed that way until 2016.

Then, Donald Trump flipped the state by a narrow margin, beating Hilary Clinton by 0.2 percent.

Joe Biden managed to widen that gap in 2020, winning the state with 50.6 percent of the vote against Trump's 47.8 percent.

Four years ago, Michigan carried 16 Electoral College Votes. This year, it has 15 in play.

Harris was leading in the polls in Michigan and other key swing states last week, but that has not meant the campaign has got comfortable.

The Vice President's running mate Tim Walz was reported to be touring the state Thursday and Friday, while the campaign launched pro-abortion ads—seen as a key, winning issue for the Democrats this November—in Michigan and other swing states.

Like other swing states, Michigan's mix of urban and rural voters means both candidates face challenges winning over undecided voters, with some telling the BBC this week that Trump's messages of rebuilding America resonate with them more than Harris' promises.

Both Harris and Trump are hitting swing states hard this week, with the current VP in North Carolina and the former president in Arizona.

Follow Newsweek's live blog for election updates.

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About the writer

Dan Gooding is a Newsweek reporter based in New York City. His focus is reporting on immigration and border security. He has covered immigration issues extensively, including the root causes of migration to the U.S., its impact on border communities and responses around the country. Dan joined Newsweek in 2024 from The Independent and previously worked at The Messenger, Business Insider and in U.K. local radio. He is a graduate of De Montfort University in Leicester, UK. You can get in touch with Dan by emailing d.gooding@newsweek.com. You can find him on X @DanGooding. Languages: English.


Dan Gooding is a Newsweek reporter based in New York City. His focus is reporting on immigration and border security. ... Read more