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Conservative firebrand Kari Lake is emerging as the Republican front-runner in the 2024 Senate race in Arizona, despite concerns that extreme candidates like her hurt the GOP in the 2022 midterms.
A poll released by Emerson College on Tuesday showed Lake with plurality support from Republican state primary voters and ahead of her nearest competitor by 31 percentage points.
Lake, who unsuccessfully ran for governor, has not yet announced a Senate bid. She rose to national prominence as one of former President Donald Trump's most vocal supporters and as an election denier. With Trump's endorsement, she easily cruised through the state primaries, beating out more centrist candidates, but like other right-wing politicians who made it into the 2022 general election, she went on to lose against her Democratic opponent, Katie Hobbs.
After the defeat, Lake followed Trump's footsteps, filing election fraud lawsuits challenging the results of the election. The courts affirmed there was no election fraud in the midterm race.
Although a polarizing figure, Lake appears to have the backing of most GOP primary voters in Arizona, with 42 percent support, according to the new poll. Comparably, 11 percent of state Republicans back Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb and 7 percent back former Senate candidate Blake Masters.
Colton Duncan, a senior adviser to Lake, told Newsweek in a statement, "Arizona loves Kari Lake. America loves Kari Lake. If she decides to jump into the Senate race, she will win."
While her lawsuits were tied up in the courts, Lake stopped short of stating whether or not she was mulling a Senate run.
"At this time, if Lake enters the race she would be the favorite to win the Republican nomination, reflected in a plurality, 42 percent, of support in the Arizona Republican Senate primary," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, told Newsweek.
"There is still room for an alternative to emerge, with 28 percent undecided, but in a splintered field Lake would be very strong as she draws support across all demographics," he said.
The race in Arizona is expected to be a hot contest with newly-independent Senator Krysten Sinema up for reelection. Sinema, who was elected to the Senate as a Democrat in 2018, became an independent in December 2022, shaking up the congressional chamber's slim Democratic majority from 51 seats and moving the Senate back to an even 50-50 split.
The senator is well-established as a key swing vote and progressive challengers like Representative Ruben Gallego are hoping to oust her. The poll showed Gallego with 48 percent support from Democratic primary voters.
However, Sinema could be a more appealing option to Arizona's independent voters. The survey found that 49 percent of Arizonians disapprove of Joe Biden's job as president and 42 percent disapprove of Hobbs' job as governor.
"Biden's approval is underwater with independent voters at 38%," Kimball said. "These voters' support in 2020 helped Biden shift Arizona to a battleground state, a Democrat winning the presidential election for the first time in Arizona since Clinton in '96."
"The poll finds that Senator Sinema's name on the ballot as an independent has a greater impact at this time than who the GOP nominates as their candidate," Kimball said. "The poll also finds that in a two-way race the Republican nominee would have a better chance to win than in a three-way race, as Sinema...potentially splinters the Republican vote."
Lake's name has also been floated as a potential running mate for Trump's 2024 presidential bid. She has already thrown her support for his campaign, going so far as to call on other Republican candidates to suspend their campaigns to "rally" for Trump.
If she is chosen as Trump's vice president, it could give Lamb a boost. In a head-to-head matchup between Lamb, Sinema and Gallego, both of Sinema's challengers outperformed the sitting senator, with Gallego earning 36 percent support, Lam seeing 29 percent support and Sinema receiving 21 percent support.
The poll was conducted between August 2-4, 2023, and included a sample of 1,337 registered voters. There is a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.
Update 8/8/23, 4:16 p.m. ET: This story was updated with comments from Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
About the writer
Katherine Fung is a Newsweek senior reporter based in New York City. She has covered U.S. politics and culture extensively. ... Read more