Kari Lake's Chances of Winning Senate Election as New Ad Teases Run

Former Arizona Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake on Tuesday released a new ad that strongly suggests she will soon announce a U.S. Senate bid. If recent polls are any indication, she can expect support from a large percentage of GOP voters.

Lake posted a video on X, formerly Twitter, that contained a montage of news outlets speculating on her pursuing a Senate seat in Arizona. She wrote in the caption: "Stay tuned."

Before her career in politics, Lake worked as a television news anchor. However, she gained national attention by being one of former President Donald Trump's staunchest supporters and as an election denier. She gained Trump's endorsement in Arizona's 2022 gubernatorial election, but she lost to Democrat Katie Hobbs. Lake has continued to make false claims about her loss while mounting failed legal challenges over the election results.

Lake has not announced a Senate bid, but her senior adviser, Colton Duncan, recently told Newsweek in a statement: "Arizona loves Kari Lake. America loves Kari Lake. If she decides to jump into the Senate race, she will win."

Newsweek reached out to an adviser for Lake via email for comment regarding her Tuesday X post.

The Senate seat Lake would be vying for in the 2024 election is held by Kyrsten Sinema, a former Democrat who left her party last year and is now registered as an independent.

Though Sinema has not announced if she will seek reelection, she has been challenged by Democrat Ruben Gallego as well as by Republican Mark Lamb, the sheriff of Pinal County. Previous Senate candidate Blake Master is also expected to seek the Republican nod.

Recent surveys show Lake could expect to receive somewhere between 25 percent and 35 percent of the vote.

The most recent major poll regarding a potential Lake bid came from Emerson College and was released in early August. Lake was ahead of her nearest competitor for the Republican nomination by 31 percentage points.

According to Emerson College, 42 percent of registered Republican voters said they would support Lake, compared to 11 percent who backed Lamb and 7 percent who said they preferred Masters.

The poll included a sample of 1,337 registered voters in Arizona. There was a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.

Previous polls have asked how Lake would fair against Sinema and Gallego if the Republican announced a run and secured her party's nomination.

In mid-April, a poll by Public Policy Polling reported that Lake would receive 35 percent of the vote, while Sinema would have 14 percent. However, Gallego came out on top with 42 percent.

Public Policy Polling's April survey included 559 Arizona voters and did not announce a margin of error.

Meanwhile, a poll conducted in July by Noble Predictive Insights showed Sinema would get 26 percent of the vote, compared to Gallego's 34 percent and Lake's 25.

Noble Predictive Insights found that in a head-to-head matchup between Gallego and Lake without Sinema in the race, the Democrat was favored by 45 percent of the respondents while 35 percent supported Lake.

For its July poll, Noble Predictive Insights surveyed 1,000 registered Arizona voters. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.