The Chiefs' Schedule Was Extra Challenging, but That's Not the Whole Story

As you may have heard, the 2023 NFL season wasn't exactly what the Kansas City Chiefs expected. While the defense emerged as a quality unit, the club's vaunted offense stumbled. Despite Andy Reid running the show and Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce taking the field together, things just didn't click.

Most of the blame has been aimed toward the team's wide receiving corps, which lacks a true threat other than Travis Kelce. That reality has allowed defenses to blanket No. 87, forcing Mahomes to look elsewhere. And with those throws going to other, less-reliable options, there's more room for the drive to stall.

But, if you look a bit deeper, there was another reality that may have put the Chiefs behind the eight ball this season. And it stems from the NFL schedule.

Let's break things down.

The Chiefs Faced a Rest Deficit This Season

When you think of the NFL schedule, you probably imagine games taking place every Sunday, right? While that's a 10,000-foot view of things, there are some quirks. Sometimes you'll take the field on Thursday night; other times you'll be pulled into a Monday Night matchup.

And during the 2023 campaign, the Chiefs were one of the clubs who took their lumps from the calendar.

After KC beat the Cincinnati Bengals to clinch the AFC West title, team play-by-play announcer Mitch Holthus took to X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, to note that the reigning Super Bowl champs had endured a stretch of constantly having less rest than their opponents.

"@PSchrags @MoveTheSticks @FieldYatespeople who I respect who cover the ENTIRE @NFL& I was going to wait until after a win-NO team should face a schedule like @Chiefs had in 2023 where 5 consecutive opponents IN DECEMBER had extra days to rest and prep- from 10 days to 14 days to 11 days etc-I get networks want 'their' slot to have best teams but this has to be discussed going forward! According to Warren Sharp this hasn't happened to a team in 35 years," he wrote.

And, in May 2023, Sharp Football Analysis did look into the challenges posed by the NFL schedule. And the write-up did note that, "The Chiefs were hurt the most by the schedule followed by the 49ers and Eagles."

"The Super Bowl Champion Chiefs have a net rest edge of negative-13, the third-worst in the NFL this year," the KC-specific section explained. "But for the Chiefs, it's not just that they have less rest in general. They have less rest than their opponent for six straight weeks, from Week 12 through Week 17."

While the raw numbers around those weeks did change a bit since Kansas City's date with the Patriots was flexed out of the Monday time slot, the underlying principle remains. There were six games in a row when Andy Reid's squad was playing with less rest than the opposition; five of those games featured multi-day disadvantages.

Short Rest Could Be a Piece of the Puzzle

If you're feeling cynical, it's easy to say that rest doesn't really matter. These are highly skilled professionals, after all, who have just about every recovery-related convenience available to them. We're not talking about players who fly home in economy class and then work a part-time job during the week, after all.

But, according to Sharp Football Analysis, having extra rest does make a difference. During the 2022 campaign, teams with double-digit rest disparities performed in line with those numbers; the negative teams fell below their expected total, while the teams with extra time off pushed above expectations.

On a game-by-game level, clubs with three-plus days of extra rest also won 57% of the time.

Now, let's return to the Chiefs and consider their unique challenges.

The club's brass gambled on the receiver room, thinking that a committee approach could work. With the elite talent of both Mahomes and Kelce, the logic went, you don't need an elite wideout. If Rashee Rice, Kadarius Toney, and Skyy Moore develop into solid pass-catchers, they could get the job done.

The issue, however, was that development didn't come at the pace anyone in KC would have liked. Moore and Toney were non-factors, and veteran Marquez Valdes-Scantling didn't step up. (Rice, in fairness, has improved over the course of the season, but relying on a rookie to save the unit is never the safest idea.)

And that reality has had ripple effects. Mahomes looks off, possibly because he lacks trust in his receivers and feels the need to be perfect on every single play. Kelce is nearing 1,000 yards on the campaign, but has struggled by his high standards. Some have suggested that the tight end is distracted by his personal life, but age and the offensive realities (there's no one to draw a defense's attention away) seem like the more likely issues.

Zooming out even further, there's a general sense of frustration and sloppiness that's permeated the team. We've seen sideline clashes, thrown helmets and plenty of inopportune penalties, all of which show a team feeling the heat.

Would extra rest have been a magic bullet to solve all of those issues? Probably not entirely, but the fatigue factor could help provide a bit more context to KC's struggles. Maybe some of the mental mistakes are tied to overall fatigue. Perhaps Kelce is feeling the tight turnarounds a bit more than he would have as a younger man.

On the opposite side of the coin, it's possible that the club's young receivers (or at least Rice) would have benefited from a bit of extra time between games.

The NFL, after all, is a league of tight margins where anything can happen on any given Sunday. And, in that context, a slight advantage (or disadvantage) can make a big difference.

Ultimately, the Chiefs Didn't Help Themselves

So now that we've explored the rest deficit, that's the magic bullet that explains the Chiefs' struggles, right?

Maybe not.

The schedule was released well before the games officially began, and there was room to adjust if the lack of rest was viewed as a concern. Maybe this was the season to prioritize adding a veteran receiver, someone who could deal with the challenges of a tight schedule and playing for the defending champs.

Ultimately, KC's brass made the decision to roll with the club's current roster. And while that choice may have been motivated by the bigger picture, it left the 2023 Chiefs in a tenuous position.

The offense, for all of its star power, simply doesn't have the firepower this season. And that reality means that a single setback, whether it's a bad penalty, a dropped pass or an iffy refereeing decision, can be the difference between victory and defeat.

The rest deficit can also be added to that list.

It's context, but, when the season is said and done, it's not an excuse. As the cliche says, you are ultimately as good as your record says you are.