What Does McCarthy's Resignation Mean for the House GOP in 2024?

Conservative leaders have raised concerns that House Republicans could lose their razor-thin majority in 2024 following the resignation of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

McCarthy, a California Republican, announced his plans to step down from Congress at the end of the year. The announcement was the culmination of a tumultuous year that saw McCarthy struggle to gain the support of his Republican colleagues in January and then promptly lose the speakership nine months later.

A handful of Republicans joined all House Democrats to oust McCarthy from the speakership in early October after claiming that he failed to deliver on a number of conservative policies while in power.

How does Kevin McCarthy's resignation impact the GOP?

As the party's most potent fundraiser, McCarthy's exit may not only reduce the number of Republican House members but also potentially impacts their ability to fund their campaigns. However, he plans to continue his political involvement, he told The Wall Street Journal when announcing his plans, potentially through a political action committee, which could mitigate the effects of his departure on fundraising.

Republicans should also retain control of McCarthy's 20th District seat in California, barring a huge shock. McCarthy was reelected in 2022 by 34 percentage points.

What are the immediate challenges for the GOP in the House?

The GOP's majority is razor-thin, with a current count of 221 members against the Democrats' 213, leaving them a margin of just three votes on legislation opposed by Democrats. This delicate balance makes unity crucial for passing bills and heightens the influence of a small number of dissenting Republicans.

Following McCarthy's exit, Republicans will enter 2024 with 220 votes. This gives them the same margin, because they could still lose three votes and be ahead by 217 to 216.

In 2024, each one of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be up for election, given the 2-year terms. In 2022, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority over the Democrats, far from the "red wave" that many Republicans predicted.

GOP lawmakers hope to flip the Senate in 2024 while maintaining control of the House, giving them the majority in both congressional chambers. Some fear this goal will now be more difficult to achieve.

"It emboldens some individuals, at any given time, with a specific issue to hold up and stop the entire process," said Representative Kevin Hern, chairman of the Republican Study Committee, according to Axios.

This has already posed a problem for House Republicans, who have been plagued with infighting for months.

What about other Republican departures?

McCarthy's announcement comes only days after the House voted to expel Republican George Santos last Friday, and with Republican U.S. Representative Bill Johnson's upcoming retirement, the party's majority has grown weaker—though Johnson's departure may be offset by that of Democratic Representative Brian Higgins.

Johnson's fellow Ohioan Brad Wenstrup has also said he will not attempt to keep his seat at the next election.

Retirements are not guaranteed to reduce the Republican majority by a consequential margin. There were 12 representatives, six from each side, already looking to leave Washington in November alone, according to The Wall Street Journal. In total, 37 people are currently unlikely to be part of the next Congress.

Could age be a factor?

Conservative commentator Laura Loomer saw McCarthy's exit as beneficial for former president Donald Trump's Make America Great Again campaign, but she accused McCarthy of leaving on purpose to "further diminish" the Republican majority and pointed out the House's "old" members.

"With Santos out, and McCarthy and Bill Johnson retiring, the House GOP are at serious risk of losing their majority," Loomer posted on X, formerly Twitter, on Wednesday. "That's what they want. When you think about how many of them are old and could pass away at any moment, House GOP could very well lose their majority sooner than later. They did this on purpose to hurt Trump."

Newsweek reached out to Loomer by phone for comment.

U.S. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Georgia Republican, also voiced her concerns about the lives of House Republicans given the party's narrow majority.

"Well.. Now in 2024, we will have a 1 seat majority in the House of Representatives," Greene posted on X. "I can assure you Republican voters didn't give us the majority to crash the ship. Hopefully no one dies."

Newsweek reached out to Greene by email for comment.

The oldest House Republican is Hal Rogers, of Kentucky, who is 85 years old. However, two House Democrats are older: Grace Napolitano, of California, who is 87 years old and has already announced she is retiring; and Bill Pascrell, of New Jersey, who is 86 years old. Overall, Democrats are slightly older than their Republican counterparts in Congress, according to one analysis, at 58 years old to 56 years old.

What about the Senate?

There are 33 of the U.S. Senate's 100 seats up for election in 2024, 10 of which are held by Republicans, three by independents who caucus with Democrats and 20 seats are held by Democrats. There also is a special election to fill Republican Ben Sasse's seat. U.S. senators serve 6-year terms.

Update, 12/7/23, 7 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.