Key Midterm States See Faster Economic Decline Than Average

Several key midterm election states have seen the economies decline by a significantly greater margin than the rest of the country, according to data published on Friday.

The measure of GDP state by state showed that several key states have economies that are shrinking faster than the national average.

In particular, Arizona, Michigan, Oregon and Wisconsin have seen GDP falls of more than one percent greater than the 0.6 percent national decline. Conversely, the swing state of Nevada saw GDP grow by one percent, one of only 10 states nationally that saw economic growth.

With the midterm elections on November 8, the GDP data published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis is one of the last official indicators of how each state is performing economically. The map below has Q2 GDP data for each state.

According to Pew Research, voters care about the economy above any other issue, with 77 percent saying it was very important in considering how they vote in the 2022 Congressional elections.

Gun policy and violent crime were the next highest concerns with 62 and 60 percent respectively.

State by State: Key Races and GDP

In Arizona, the race for the senate between Democrat incumbent Mark Kelly and Republican Blake Masters has seen both candidates vowing to tackle inflation, which in Phoenix is the highest of all metropolitan areas nationally at around 13 percent.

The latest polling average has Kelly at 47.8 percent, to Masters on 42.4 percent, a race that has stayed tight according to polls tracked by RealClearPolitics.

According to the GDP data, Arizona saw a fall of 1.9 percent, although this is a slight improvement on the previous first quarter GDP reading, which was a fall of 2.2 percent.

In Michigan, the governors race between Democrat incumbent Gretchen Whitmer and Republican Tudor Dixon is close, with Whitmer around 10 points ahead, although polls showed a tighter race in July.

Michigan's GDP for the second quarter was a decline of 1.7 percent, a greater fall than the national average, but also a turnaround from the previous quarter which showed 2.5 percent growth.

In Oregon, another close governor's race is open between Christine Drazan (Republican) and Tina Kotek (Democrat), and Democrat incumbent Kate Brown is term-limited. The only poll available currently shows Drazan ahead by six points.

The GDP reading for Oregon shows a further decline from the previous quarter, with the economy contracting by 1.6 percent.

Wisconsin's senate race between Republican Ron Johnson, the incumbent, and Democrat Mandela Barnes, shows a very tight race. According to RealClearPolitics, the poll gap average is just 2.3 points in Johnson's favor.

The GDP reading for the state came in at -1.9 percent for the quarter, falling from a positive 0.3 percent in the previous quarter. This is also more than a full percentage point lower that the U.S. average.

Lastly, in Nevada, GDP is up one percent in the second quarter, bucking the national trend.

The Nevada Senate race between Republican challenger Adam Laxalt and Catherine Cortez Masto, the Democrat incumbent, could decide the balance of the Senate. Laxalt is 1.7 points ahead in the polls, on average according to RealClearPolitics.

But polls have shown both candidates to be ahead at one stage or another. The GDP figure will be a timely boost for the Democrats, assuming other economic indicators don't swing the other way.