Kherson Flooding Would be Like Dropping 'Atomic Bomb' if Putin Strikes Dam

A Russian strike on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) in Ukraine's southern Kherson region, where a Ukrainian counteroffensive is ongoing, could be like dropping an "atomic bomb," an expert has assessed.

The Kakhovka HPP has been shelled by Russian forces since the beginning of the war, which began after President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion against Ukraine on February 24.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S. think tank, assessed this week that Russian forces may be preparing to carry out a false-flag attack on the Kakhovka HPP where Kyiv is conducting extensive military action to take back its territory.

Ukrainian media outlet Rubryka reported in July that the Kakhovka HPP is a vital element of the country's infrastructure security, and if destroyed, could result in catastrophic consequences.

Rubryka cited an environmental monitoring expert as saying that the consequences of damaging the dam of a hydroelectric power plant "can easily be compared to [an] atomic bomb explosion."

"Everyone should understand that one cubic meter of water weighs a ton: imagine the amount of water in a meter-by-meter cube: that's one ton. Dams contain a huge mass of water, millions of tons," Maksym Soroka told Rubryka.

"Force is mass multiplied by acceleration, and when that mass accelerates, we have a force of thousands of kilotons, and these forces are enough to destroy concrete. The devastating consequences become catastrophic."

He added: "So far, the Russians have had the sense not to attack our strategic hydraulic structures."

The ISW in its assessment on Wednesday cited Vladimir Saldo, head of Kherson's Russian-installed administration, as claiming this week that Ukraine intends to destroy the strategic facility.

On Tuesday, he announced the "organized transfer" of civilians in four districts from the west bank to the eastern bank of the Dnieper River, saying the measure is necessary, because Ukraine is "assembling forces for a wide-scale offensive" and that there is an "immediate danger that the territory will be flooded due to the planned destruction of the dam at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant."

The new commander of Putin's army in Ukraine, General Sergei Surovikin, also claimed on Wednesday that he had received information that Kyiv intends to strike the dam at the Kakhovka HPP, which he alleged would cause destructive flooding in Kherson.

The ISW said Russian authorities likely intend these warnings about a purported Ukrainian strike on the Kakhovka HPP to set an information environment for Russian forces to damage the dam themselves, and blame Ukraine for the subsequent damage and loss of life, all while using the resulting floods to cover their own retreat further south into the Kherson region.

Former Ukrainian MP Sergey Khlan, who is currently an advisor to the regional governor of Kherson, said in August that should Russian troops significantly damage the strategic facility, a large number of settlements nearby may be flooded.

According to research carried out by a Ukrainian professor on the possible consequences of damaging dams of water reservoirs in Ukraine, 18 settlements in Kherson will be entirely covered by a layer of water, and another 25 will be partially flooded, should the Kakhovka HPP be damaged.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video address to the nation on Thursday night that 80 settlements, including the city of Kherson, could be flooded if Russia blows up the dam.

"According to our information, the units and the dam of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station were mined by Russian terrorists," he said.

Neil Melvin, Director of International Security Studies at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told Newsweek the destruction of the dam would cause significant economic damage to the downstream areas and civilian death and displacement.

"It would also harm Ukraine's ability to generate electricity as the country heads into winter," said Melvin.

Melvin noted that Russia has escalated its approach to the war by targeting energy infrastructure in Ukraine with the aim of trying to break the economy and morale of the Ukrainian population.

"The new approach is also designed to cause a potential new wave of refugees into Europe and increase the economic costs of supporting Ukraine for western countries, with the hope that this will split the coalition backing Kyiv," he said.

"This approach is required by Russia as it continues to lose on the battlefield."

Melvin said that the dam is equally a means for Russian troops to cross the Dnieper river, and as Ukraine makes progress on the western bank, Moscow wants to "prevent a breakout" by Ukrainian forces into the southern areas that is occupies on the eastern bank.

Newsweek has contacted the foreign ministries of Ukraine and Russia for comment.