Why Kim Jong Un's Sister Will Not Succeed Him as North Korea Leader

Despite Kim Yo Jong's seemingly increasing influence and rumours of Kim Jong Un's ill health, the sister of the North Korean leader is not destined to succeed him, experts tell Newsweek.

Kim Yo Jong is increasingly looking like the senior North Korean official making public statements directed at the international community.

In a statement on Tuesday, Kim Yo Jong denounced South Korean defense officials as "treacherous" for taking part in a "dangerous" joint military exercise with the United States.

There have also been numerous reports that are questioning her brother's health, after he lost a lot of weight earlier this year.

"Even though Kim Yo Jong does often make statements on behalf of the North Korean government, this does not mean she is the one in control. Kim Jong Un is still very much the one calling the shots, as far as we know," Gabiela Bernal, a Korean Affairs Analyst based in Seoul, told Newsweek.

She added that Kim Jong Un is likely simply using his sister as a mouthpiece to express any anger and threats aimed at South Korea and the United States.

"This way, the comments don't fall directly on him and he can always backtrack through later statements to reopen the door for some form of diplomacy or talks," Bernal said.

She said it was unlikely Kim Yo Jong would become the next possible leader of the hermit kingdom for several reasons.

"One, her gender is a problem in NK given the patriarchal nature of the society. The only thing she has going for her is her bloodline, without which no woman would ever have such political influence in that country.

"If anything were to happen to KJU, it would be more likely that a high-level military figure loyal to the Kim family would take over in an official capacity while KYJ would play a more symbolic or ceremonial role. But it's too early to say for sure."

Tom Fowdy, North Korea and China Analysis at the Chollima Report told Newsweek that the international community tends to "think too deeply" into reports of Kim Jong Un's health, which are often based on hearsay or speculation.

"I think there has been a circus of hysteria in the media which has made serious analysis unhelpful. Kim has lost a lot of weight obviously, but that could be political in view to the country's situation as much as it may be health related," he said.

"The condition of the North Korean leaders is always a closely guarded secret and the DPRK (Democratic People's Republic of Korea) never wants to emit any recognition that its leaders may be experiencing outward weakness in terms of health," Fowdy added.

Referring to Kim Yo Jong, Fowdy said her rise to power has been part of a tactic in how to conduct international diplomacy.

"She is a secondary voice who is used to convey messages which are important but not of the gravity of Kim Jong Un himself, and this all part of the game with the US and South Korea," he said, adding that Kim Yo Jong acts more as an "angry messenger" when it comes to Seoul.

"She can voice discontent and disapproval, without cutting away the access to talks themselves of which would be facilitated by her brother."

He added that North Korea seeks to portray Kim Jon Un as more of a "good cop" and his sister as more of a "bad cop", but said she could never become the leader of the country.

"To become the 'successor' is not an automatic father-to-son trait as opposed to years of slowly building up their personality cult, power base and legitimacy too. She could be challenged by others."

In terms of Kim Jong Un's successor being one of his children, there is not much information about his offspring in the public sphere and details about his family are a closely guarded secret.

But the dictator is believed to have had three children with his wife Ri Sol Ju since their secretive marriage in 2009. A report by CNN from 2017 suggested that at least one of the couple's children is a boy.