Kremlin at Risk of Being Weakened by Wagner Group Financier's Comments: ISW

Russian President Vladimir Putin's hold on power could be in peril due to the financier behind a Russian mercenary group criticizing the military's performance in Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Critical remarks on the war from oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, the financier behind the Wagner Group, could "undermine" Putin's image of strength, according to an ISW report published Monday night. Prigozhin, long considered to be one of Putin's strongest allies, earlier this month praised Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov's suggestion that a top Russian general should be sent to the frontlines of the war and forced to "wash away his shame with blood." Prigozhin suggested that "all these bast**ds" leading the military should be forced to join him.

While Prigozhin has not lashed out at Putin directly, poor assessments of the military's performance from him and others among Russia's elite have sparked some to speculate that efforts to overthrow the Russian president could be in the works. Monday's ISW report notes that social media outlets affiliated with Prigozhin and the Wagner Group "are increasingly commenting on the ineffectiveness of traditional Russian military institutions and societal issues, which may indirectly undermine the Kremlin's rule."

"Prigozhin's narratives have the ingredients to appeal to the Russian President Vladimir Putin's nationalist constituency that has long called for oligarchs to finance supplies for the armed forces, demanded transparency about what is really going on at the front, and criticized Russian higher military institutions for their failures on the frontlines," the report states.

"While Prigozhin does not directly oppose or criticize Putin, his growing notoriety within the nationalist community may undermine Putin's 'strongman' appeal by comparison," it continued. "The emerging discussions about a civil war in Russia may further disrupt the Kremlin's narratives about the national, ethnic, and religious unity within Russia."

Kyiv-based Russian military expert Oleg Zhdanov said during an interview on Ukrainian radio earlier this month that Prigozhin and Kadyrov may be criticizing the military as part of the Russian elite's efforts to "shake up the situation to overthrow Putin."

Investigative journalism organization Bellingcat and others have suggested that the Wagner Group may have staged a recent video clip appearing to show Russian troops complaining about conditions and a lack of military support as part of an effort to undermine Putin.

Mercenaries from the Wagner Group have also been playing an increasing role in the war as Russian troops have taken heavy casualties amid fierce Ukrainian counterattacks. The private army has been particularly active in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region.

Last week, the U.K. Ministry of Defence said that the mercenaries were "heavily" involved in a prolonged battle to control the city of Bakhmut. Alexei Nagin, a senior commander for the Wagner Group, was killed while fighting Ukrainian troops near Bakhmut last month.

Newsweek reached out to the Russian government for comment.