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A comparison of Lake Mead's water levels before and after the drought hit that part of the U.S. points to a sobering future.
Lake Mead is the largest man-made reservoir in the U.S., spread between Nevada and California on the Colorado River. It made national headlines in 2022 as its water levels hit the lowest they have ever been due to the ongoing megadrought gripping the western United States.
Water levels were the highest they have ever been in the 1980s, reaching 1,225 feet, but since then they have steadily fallen. After the drought hit, the decline got steeper and in 2015, it hit 1,074 feet, before dropping further.
Jennifer Pitt, the Colorado River program director with the National Audubon Society, an environmental organization, told Newsweek: "Today Lake Mead is only 28% full – its water level is down about 170 feet, and you can see a giant "bathtub ring" where the water is missing."
The lake's water levels have been declining for years, but last year was particularly prominent for the drought-stricken reservoir as it reached an all time low.
In July 2022, water levels were at 1,040 feet, the lowest they have been since the reservoir was first constructed in the 1930s. Lake Mead's water level stands at 1,045 feet as of January 8, 2023.
That's 21 feet lower than the levels recorded at the same point in 2022, and 38 feet lower than the same point in 2021.
The lake's supply isn't just important to surrounding communities for water, but as it's also formed by the Hoover Dam on the Colorado River—which generates electricity for thousands of people. If the water levels continue to decline, the consequences could be catastrophic. It currently appears to be hurtling towards deadpool level, which is at about 895 feet. At this level, water wouldn't flow past the dam anymore, meaning its operations would cease.
Scientists are predicting more of the same in 2023, so the situation is likely to get even more dire.
Federal agency the Bureau of Reclamation predicts that Lake Mead could reach 1,013 feet by 2024. In a worst case scenario, Lake Mead could reach as low as 992 feet by the end of July 2024, according to a two-year "probabilistic projection" of the Colorado River system by the Bureau of Reclamation, released in August 2022.
The water isn't just declining, it's also barely filling.
"The Bureau of Reclamation, the federal agency that manages the Colorado River, projects that by the end of 2023 Lake Mead will drop another 20 - 30 feet, meaning the reservoir would be down to around 21% full," Pitt said. "It could drop even lower - Reclamation may need to keep more water upriver in Lake Powell because the Glen Canyon Dam could be damaged if the water level there gets too low."
Lake Mead's water levels fluctuate naturally with seasonal weather patterns, but with the ongoing drought, these have been harder to predict.
There has been less rainfall and not as much winter snowpack flowing down from the mountains.
Occasionally, water levels rise with an onset of rain. For example, lots of heavy rainfall has been sweeping across Nevada and California in recent days. But climate change worsens conditions, and scientists believe that more is needed than just relying on unpredictable weather patterns.
"Lake Mead's water levels have been declining since 2000. It has gotten warmer and drier, and the rules haven't changed fast enough to stop the decline," Pitt said. "The legal framework is really complicated, but it's urgent to change it right now before the risk increases and there's no water for everyone and everything dependent on water from Lake Mead—farms, birds, major cities, really all life in the Southwest."
Lake Mead isn't the only river experiencing the severe effects of drought.
Problems Elsewhere
The wider Colorado River source is also drying up, making Lake Mead's situation worse. The river is one of the most important across the Southwestern United States and northern Mexico. It provides water for around 40 million people in the surrounding areas, and supplies water to 5 million acres of farmland.
Over the last century, the river's flow has dropped by 20 percent, according to data from the U.S. Geological Survey.
Parts of the Mississippi River is also the lowest they have been in a decade. Particularly low water levels have been recorded in Memphis, Tennessee, where levels have dropped to as low as -6.1 feet as of November 15.
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About the writer
Robyn White is a Newsweek Nature Reporter based in London, UK. Her focus is reporting on wildlife, science and the ... Read more
