Larry Hogan Dealt Fresh Polling Blow Despite Angela Alsobrooks Tax Scandal

Former Maryland Republican governor Larry Hogan's chances of flipping the state's Senate seat are narrowing, with Democrat Angela Alsobrooks holding a double-digit lead among likely voters despite his higher favorability rating, according to a poll.

Hogan, a two-term moderate Republican governor who was popular in the traditionally blue state, is running for the seat held by Democratic Senator Ben Cardin who is not seeking reelection at the end of his term.

He is facing off against Alsobrooks, the executive of Prince George's County and the county's former state's attorney. If Hogan wins, he would be the state's first Republican to fill the seat since Senator Charles Mathias left office in 1987.

Despite recent allegations that Alsobrooks benefited from tax breaks that she didn't qualify for on her two properties in Washington D.C. and Maryland, which allegedly saved her thousands of dollars, she is still leading in the latest Washington Post/University of Maryland poll.

The allegations were reported by CNN on September 22, and the poll was conducted between September 19 and 23, so not all respondents had the tax context prior to responding.

Alsobrooks leads Hogan by 11 percentage points among 1,012 Maryland likely voters, receiving 51 percent of the vote to Hogan's 40 percent, the poll found. However, Hogan is able to pull Democrats, with 18 percent of his supporters registered Democrats, whereas only 8 percent registered Republicans back Alsobrooks.

Among 1,012 registered voters, Alsobrooks holds a 9 percentage point lead, with 50 percent support compared to Hogan's 41 percent.

While Hogan's favorability rating has dropped since March and Alsobrooks' has significantly increased, the Republican former governor remains the more favorable candidate, with 53 percent of respondents viewing him favorably compared to 50 percent for Alsobrooks. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Newsweek reached out to Hogan's press team for comment via email on Thursday.

Alsobrooks told Newsweek in an email statement on Thursday: "This race will determine which party controls the Majority, and which party sets the agenda. Reproductive freedoms. Gun safety laws. Fighting to lower costs for working families. All of that is on the line in this race."

With less than 40 days until Election Day, which will determine the presidential seat and control of Congress, the Senate majority is up for grabs with razor-thin margins. The upper chamber is currently controlled by the Democrats, who hold a narrow majority of 51 seats as four independents caucus with the party, while Republicans hold 49 seats.

Regarding the tax allegations reported by CNN, Connor Lounsbury, a senior adviser to Alsobrooks, told Newsweek earlier this week in an email statement regarding her Washington D.C. property that Alsobrooks "took over for her family and paid the mortgage until the property was sold in 2018. She was unaware of any tax credits attached to that property and has reached out to the District of Columbia to resolve the issue and make any necessary payment."

In reference to the claims on her property in Prince George's County, Lounsbury said: "When Angela bought her new property, the homestead tax credit from her previous home was not transferred. This resulted in no financial gain for Angela. In fact, she ended up paying more in taxes than she would have had the credit transferred over. Nevertheless, Angela is working to repay any credits received on the old property."

Meanwhile, Blake Kernen, a campaign spokesperson for Hogan, told Newsweek earlier this week via email: "It's deeply disturbing that Angela Alsobrooks thinks the rules don't apply to her. She campaigns on raising taxes while failing to pay her own and taking advantage of tax credits reserved for the poor and elderly. She claims to be unaware of tax laws it was her job to enforce. Governor Hogan has always stood up for taxpayers and in the Senate he will continue to fight for fairness and fiscal responsibility."

Maryland's Future, a super PAC backing Hogan's campaign, aired a 30-second ad on Wednesday that jabbed at Alsobrooks, saying: "This economy has been hard on our wallets, but not on Angela Alsobrooks." The ad concludes with the voice-over saying, "Angela Alsobrooks: higher taxes for you, illegal tax breaks for her."

In response to the ad and poll's findings, Alsobrooks told Newsweek in an email on Thursday: "This is going to be a competitive race, which is why Larry Hogan's Republican billionaire friends are spending $18 million on negative attack ads to defeat me."

According to the Federal Election Commission (FEC), the PAC was registered in February 2024, and its latest July filing shows over $15 million on hand. Reports from The Hill and Axios now indicate the PAC holds $18 million.

Newsweek reached out to Maryland's Future for confirmation via email on Thursday.