Larry Hogan's Chances of Flipping Democratic Senate Seat in Maryland: Polls

Former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan faces waning chances of flipping the state's Democratic U.S. Senate seat, according to recent polls. However, allegations that Democratic candidate Angela Alsobrooks benefited from tax breaks that she didn't qualify for could shake up the race.

November's election could change control of the Senate, making down-ballot races closely watched as the presidential election is razor thin. The upper chamber is currently controlled by the Democrats, who hold a narrow majority of 51 seats as four independents caucus with the party, while Republicans hold 49 seats.

Hogan, a two-term moderate Republican governor who was popular in the traditionally blue state, is running for the seat held by Democratic Senator Ben Cardin who is not seeking reelection at the end of his term. Hogan is facing off against Alsobrooks, the executive of Prince George's County and the county's former state's attorney. If the former governor wins, he would be the state's first Republican to fill the seat since Senator Charles Mathias left office in 1987.

On Sunday, CNN reported that Alsobrooks allegedly took advantage of a homestead tax exemption on her two properties in Washington, D.C., and Maryland for nearly a decade, which saved her thousands of dollars. It also found an improper claim of a senior citizens' tax break.

Connor Lounsbury, a senior adviser to Alsobrooks, told Newsweek in an email statement regarding her Washington D.C. property that Alsobrooks "took over for her family and paid the mortgage until the property was sold in 2018. She was unaware of any tax credits attached to that property and has reached out to the District of Columbia to resolve the issue and make any necessary payment."

In reference to the claims on her property in Prince George's County, Lounsbury told Newsweek, "When Angela bought her new property, the homestead tax credit from her previous home was not transferred. This resulted in no financial gain for Angela. In fact, she ended up paying more in taxes than she would have had the credit transferred over. Nevertheless, Angela is working to repay any credits received on the old property."

Meanwhile, Blake Kernen, a campaign spokesperson for Hogan, told Newsweek via email, "It's deeply disturbing that Angela Alsobrooks thinks the rules don't apply to her. She campaigns on raising taxes while failing to pay her own and taking advantage of tax credits reserved for the poor and elderly. She claims to be unaware of tax laws it was her job to enforce. Governor Hogan has always stood up for taxpayers and in the Senate he will continue to fight for fairness and fiscal responsibility."

What the Polls Show

An AARP bipartisan poll commissioned by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research from August 14 to 20 of 600 likely voters found the two candidates tied.

The poll, which had an oversample of 482 likely voters aged 50 and older, found Hogan and Alsobrooks each pulling in 46 percent support. Among respondents 50 and older, Hogan led Alsobrooks by 2 percentage points, 47 to 45 percent. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

However, ahead of that poll, and since then, several surveys show a growing lead for Alsobrooks.

Two consecutive Morning Consult polls show Alsobrooks edging ahead in the state, with the latest, conducted between September 9 and 18, finding 50 percent of respondents backing Alsobrooks and 39 percent supporting Hogan.

The poll, like the one conducted between August 30 to September 8, surveyed 474 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The first Morning Consult poll showed a smaller gap between the two candidates, with Alsobrooks at 48 percent and Hogan at 43 percent. Both polls show Alsobrooks ahead outside of the margin of error.

An Emerson College Polling/DC News Now/The Hill poll of 890 likely voters conducted between September 12 and 13, found 49 percent of respondents supporting Alsobrooks, 42 percent backing Hogan, and 9 percent undecided. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

Hogan is expected to pull in Democratic voters, with Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling saying,"Fifteen percent of [Vice President Kamala] Harris voters plan to split their ticket and vote for Larry Hogan for Senate."

State polls show an overwhelming lead for Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, over former President Donald Trump, the GOP's nominee. FiveThirtyEight's aggregate state poll shows Harris ahead of Trump by 29 percentage points in Maryland while RealClearPolitics puts her at a 28.8 percent lead.

The Cook Political Report labels the Maryland Senate race as "Likely Democratic."

Update 9/22/24, 5:15 p.m. ET: This article has been updated to include comments from both Hogan's and Alsobrooks' campaigns.