Lauren Boebert Almost Losing Election '100 Percent on Her'

In a near-upset, Republican congresswoman Lauren Boebert almost lost her bid for reelection in a solidly red district. And although the GOP saw a number of difficult defeats in the midterm elections, experts say Boebert's tight race was "100% on her."

The conservative firebrand had been widely expected to dominate in Colorado's 3rd Congressional District. FiveThirtyEight's final forecast predicted that Boebert had a 97-in-100 chance of winning going into Election Day, but her Democratic opponent Adam Frisch proved to be a tough challenger, climbing slightly ahead of her at the beginning of the vote count.

In the end, Frisch called Boebert to concede the race on Friday afternoon, despite the fact that the contest was likely headed to a recount under Colorado law. State law triggers an automatic recount if the top two candidates are within a 0.5 margin of votes. On Friday, Boebert was ahead by 551 votes or 0.16 percent.

Although Frisch ran a strong campaign as an effective fundraiser and middle-of-the-road alternative to the incumbent Republican, experts say the vote was "largely about Boebert."

Seth Masket, a political science professor at the University of Denver, told Newsweek that based on former President Donald Trump's example, Republicans have assumed that some of their members could behave without political repercussions.

"Boebert, however, has managed to alienate a number of unaffiliated voters and possibly some Republicans in her district," Masket said.

Throughout the election cycle, Frisch has made those voters the target of his campaign. By going after conservative voters who feel as though Boebert's abandoned them in favor of becoming a national MAGA star, Frisch managed to mobilize residents who wanted to vote for anyone but the congresswoman.

"The effectiveness of Frisch's organization has to be part of the story," Kyle Saunders, a political science professor at Colorado State University, previously told Newsweek.

Republican strategist Alex Patton told Newsweek he found the tight race unsurprising, given that Boebert has been "more interested in being an Instagram influencer than governing for her constituents."

Because Boebert's district leans considerably red, her performance "is 100% on her," Patton said. According to the Cook Partisan Voting Index, which measures how strongly a district leans toward a political party, Boebert's district has a PVI of R+7.

Factoring the district's PVI in with midterm projections for Republicans and President Joe Biden's low approval ratings, Boebert's race is one she should have won easily, Saunders said.

"This is a different set of lines that were actually more favorable to her than the 2020 district," Saunders told Newsweek.

Republican strategist Jay Townsend said Boebert's seat was never supposed to be vulnerable in the GOP stronghold, but what the Republican Party missed was "a very strong undercurrent in the body politic"—what he called "a diminishing appetite for clowns."

"Boebert is a clown. Always has been. Always will be," Townsend told Newsweek, adding that the narrow margin of victory suggests "she has worn out her welcome even in a ruby red GOP district in Colorado."