Lauren Boebert Defeat Could Cost Republicans the House

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Giulia Carbonaro is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on the U.S. economy, housing market, property insurance market, local and national politics. She has previously extensively covered U.S. and European politics. Giulia joined Newsweek in 2022 from CGTN Europe and had previously worked at the European Central Bank. She is a graduate in Broadcast Journalism from Nottingham Trent University and holds a Bachelor's degree in Politics and International Relations from Università degli Studi di Cagliari, Italy. She speaks English, Italian, and a little French and Spanish. You can get in touch with Giulia by emailing: g.carbonaro@newsweek.com.

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As hardline conservative Rep. Lauren Boebert remains locked in a tight race with Democrat Adam Frisch for Colorado's third congressional district, the prospect of the incumbent congresswoman being defeated is starting to emerge as a matter of concern for the GOP.

Boebert, one of Trump's most ardent supporters, was clearly favored to win by most polls conducted in the lead-up to the vote, with polling website FiveThirtyEight giving her a 97 in 100 chance of victory. Frisch, a businessman and former city councilman from Aspen, was given only a three in 100 chance of defeating the conservative firebrand.

But the race is proving much closer than analysts predicted. At the moment, Boebert is trailing Frish with 49.99 percent of the vote to the Democrat's 50.01 percent.

For live updates on the midterms head over to Newsweek's Live Blog: Who Won the Midterm Elections 2022?—Senate, House, Governor Results.

Lauren Boebert Outside U.S. Capitol building
A file photo of Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) pictured in front of the U.S. Capitol building July 1, 2021 Getty

A Boebert defeat would be as unexpected as it would be disastrous for the GOP, likely causing Republicans to fail to flip the House. At the moment, Republicans have an 83 percent chance of controlling the House, according to The New York Times.

But this result could be upset if the Democrats manage to win a few more seats in states where races are tight. At the moment, Democrats are estimated to have 211 seats in the House, against Republicans' estimated 224 seats.

There are other races where Democrat nominees could cause an upset -- in Colorado's 8th district (CO-8), Washington's 3rd and 8th districts (WA-3, -8), California's 13th, 22nd and 27th districts (CA-13, -22, -27), Oregon's 5th district (OR-5), and Arizona's 1st and 6th districts (AZ-1, -6).

In Colorado's 8th district's race, Democrat Yadira Caraveo is narrowly ahead of Republican Barbara Kirkmeyer with 48.3 percent of the vote. Though the race hasn't yet been called by either The Associated Press or The New York Times, Caraveo has claimed victory, writing: "It's the honor of my lifetime to receive this vote of confidence to serve working families from Greeley to Commerce City in Washington, D.C."

In Washington's 3rd district Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez is ahead of Joe Kent with 52.9 percent of the vote, and in the 8th district's race, Democrat Kim Schrier is ahead of rival Matt Larkin with 52.9 percent of the vote.

In California's 13th district, Republican John Duarte is slightly ahead of rival Adam Gray with 50.1 percent of the vote. In both 22nd and 27th districts, Republican candidates are currently ahead. Democrats are marginally ahead in the state's 47th and 49th districts, while in the 41st district Democrat Will Rollins is ahead with 56.2 percent of the vote against his rival Ken Calvert.

In Oregon's 5th district, Independent Jamie McLeod-Skinner is narrowly trailing Lori Chavez-DeRemer with 48 percent of the vote. In Arizona's 1st district, Democrat Jevin Hodge is currently ahead with 50.9 percent of the vote, and in the 6th Democrat Kirsten Engel is trailing Republican Juan Ciscomani with 48.1 percent of the vote.

As results are yet to be finalized, Boebert could still emerge as the winner in the CO-3 race. But even so, the margin involved has already shown that voters in the district are disappointed and dissatisfied with the contentious congresswoman.

"[If she won,] Boebert would feel vindicated in her approach and her stance on major issues, as well as her style of leadership," Todd Landman, a professor of political science and pro-vice-chancellor with responsibility for the Faculty of Social Sciences at The University of Nottingham, U.K., told Newsweek.

"However, with a razor-thin victory she will need to be reminded that in two years' time, she needs to win again."

A Boebert defeat would also be another loss for Trump-endorsed candidates and a further blow to the former president, who was widely expected to launch his 2024 presidential campaign after the midterms.

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About the writer

Giulia Carbonaro is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on the U.S. economy, housing market, property insurance market, local and national politics. She has previously extensively covered U.S. and European politics. Giulia joined Newsweek in 2022 from CGTN Europe and had previously worked at the European Central Bank. She is a graduate in Broadcast Journalism from Nottingham Trent University and holds a Bachelor's degree in Politics and International Relations from Università degli Studi di Cagliari, Italy. She speaks English, Italian, and a little French and Spanish. You can get in touch with Giulia by emailing: g.carbonaro@newsweek.com.

Writers Page

Giulia Carbonaro is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on the U.S. economy, housing market, property ... Read more