Lauren Boebert Just Made Democrats' Job Harder

Representative Lauren Boebert's shocking decision to switch House races could be good news for Republicans who want to keep her district in GOP hands.

Boebert announced Wednesday night that she was abandoning Colorado's 3rd congressional district for 2024 to run for a solidly Republican seat in the 4th district on the other side of the state. Her departure means the conservative firebrand will avoid a rematch against Democrat Adam Frisch, who nearly flipped the district last year and who has far outraised her this cycle.

Frisch, whose stronger-than-expected performance in 2022 made Colorado's 3rd district the most competitive House race of the midterms, has received an outpour of support in his second bid to defeat Boebert. He has already broken fundraising records, bringing in over $3.38 million in the third quarter—almost four times the amount that Boebert raised.

But Frisch's campaign might lose momentum now that the Democrat's lost his political boogeyman.

"Frisch is no longer running against his foil, so the campaign has to retool, which adds a bit of (surmountable) difficulty for them," Kyle Saunders, a political science professor at the Colorado State University, told Newsweek.

Boebert's move is expected to help Republicans hold onto the competitive 3rd district, which has a +7 Republican lean on the Cook Partisan Voting Index. The 4th district, where Boebert is now running to fill the vacancy left by outgoing Representative Ken Buck, is solidly red with a Republican lean of +9.

Boebert's re-election campaign had looked increasingly difficult in recent weeks. A number of out-of-state Hollywood donors had contributed to Frisch's efforts to defeat her and a November poll from the nonpartisan Colorado Polling Institute (CPI) showed that half of Colorado voters thought MAGA policies were dangerous for the state.

Saunders pointed out that because of the Republican lean of the 3rd district, whichever non-Boebert GOP nominee goes onto the general election will have a built-in advantage electorally because there are just more Republicans in this district. But he noted that it would still take a strong campaign and significant fundraising for a Republican candidate to beat Frisch given how well-funded and experienced the Democrat is from having already running in 2022 and almost winning by some 500 votes.

"We have one of the greatest name ID, fundraising, and district-wide relationship advantages for any challenger in the country," Frisch's campaign told Newsweek in a statement. "From Day 1 of this race, I have been squarely focused on defending rural Colorado's way of life, and offering common sense solutions to the problems facing the families of Colorado's 3rd Congressional District. My focus will remain the same, and I look forward to bringing these issues with me to Congress in 2024."

But in what might be a bad sign for Frisch, Boebert's departure has been welcomed by Republican Jeff Hurd, who was running against the congresswoman in the GOP primaries. Hurd launched his campaign halfway through the third quarter, raising over $412,000, about half of what Boebert raised in double the amount of time.

"Jeff always was the alternate to Lauren in the race, and without her in, it allows the party to unify and prepare to take on Adam Frisch and the Democrats," Hurd's campaign told Newsweek. "The district is a Republican one and Jeff is the only one equipped to hold the seat."

Saunders said it will be difficult to assess what lies ahead for Colorado's 3rd district until it's clear how the Republican Party and the National Republican Congressional Committee decide to handle the race.

As for Boebert, he said there will be no easy path for Democrats to defeat her in the 4th district since the MAGA star will likely be a shoo-in if she's selected as the Republican nominee.

"No doubt many of Boebert's positives and negatives will translate over to the new race—and she will have to overcome some things," Saunders said. "There are other Republican candidates she must defeat for the nomination, but with her cash on hand and her name recognition she has to be the favorite as of today, especially if the NRCC is on board with this strategy."

He continued, "It's going to be up to the voters in the Republican primary in the 4th district though, and if they choose her to be the nominee, she is quite likely to win the general election."

Newsweek reached out to Frisch's campaign via email for comment.