Lee Zeldin Within Single-Digit Margin of Flipping New York for GOP: Poll

GOP Representative Lee Zeldin is within a single-digit margin of winning the New York gubernatorial election, according to a new poll.

A Zeldin victory would be viewed as a major upset against Governor Kathy Hochul, who succeeded former Governor Andrew Cuomo following his resignation last year, as New York is one of the most Democratic states in the United States. The race has generally not been viewed as competitive as Republicans seek to win governorships in more competitive states.

A Trafalgar Group poll conducted from August 31 to September 1 found that Zeldin trailed Hochul by less than 5 percentage points. The survey marks the best polling for Zeldin in months, but still shows Hochul as the likely winner.

Zeldin won support from 43.4 percent of poll respondents, while Hochul secured support from 47.8 of the respondents. The poll surveyed 1,091 respondents and has a margin of error of 2.9 percent.

While the poll may give Republicans optimism about the race, it is an outlier among other recent surveys. Trafalgar is also generally seen as having a conservative lean, though FiveThirtyEight gives them an A- score.

Across all polls, Hochul leads Zeldin by about 16 points, according to an aggregate of polls from FiveThirtyEight. The governor has an average of 51.8 percent of support, while her opponent has an average of 35.5 percent.

Other recent independent polling shows Hochul with a significant lead over Zeldin. A SurveyUSA/WNYT poll conducted from August 17 to 21 found Hochul with a 24 point lead against Zeldin. Meanwhile, an Emerson College poll conducted from July 26 to 28 found the governor with a 16 point lead.

The race is still considered to be "Solid Democrat" by the Cook Political Report, an organization that tracks elections across the country.

Zeldin has represented New York's First Congressional District, which includes the easternmost parts of Long Island, since 2014. His campaign has largely focused on public safety and crime. In July, Zeldin was attacked by a man who attempted to stab him while delivering a speech in Fairpoint, New York. He did not suffer serious injuries.

In a statement posted to Twitter on Saturday, Zeldin wrote that the new poll indicates "New Yorkers are starting to see who the real Kathy Hochul is, a corrupt, out-of-touch, weak Governor driving the state in the wrong direction."

He is set to face off against Hochul, who rose to the governorship following Cuomo's resignation in August 2021. He resigned after New York Attorney General Letitia James released a report concluding a months-long investigation into reports that he sexually harassed multiple female employees.

Hochul pledged that her administration would usher in a "new era of transparency" and ethics. However, about seven months after taking office, her first Lieutenant Governor Brian Benjamin resigned after being arrested on bribery charges.

The poll also comes after New York Republicans were dealt a loss after Democrat Pat Ryan won the special election to replace now Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado in a swing district the GOP hoped to flip. His victory was a troubling sign for Republicans, who are facing several competitive races in the Empire State, amid backlash to the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade. Democrats also over-performed a special election in a conservative western New York district.

Newsweek reached out to the Hochul and Zeldin campaigns for comment.