Election 2024: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris Final Polls and Odds

The 2024 U.S. presidential election campaign is one of the closest races in recent history. Initially, polls showed former President Donald Trump holding a consistent lead over President Joe Biden, with margins typically ranging from two to four percentage points. However, the political landscape underwent a seismic shift when Biden withdrew from the race after a disastrous debate performance against Trump in June.

Vice President Kamala Harris' emergence as the Democratic nominee has altered the dynamics of the contest. Recent polls indicate that Harris has closed the gap with Trump, and the race is too close to call. While Trump had maintained a lead over Biden in most surveys, the latest polls often show Harris and Trump separated by within the margin of error.

The closeness of the race is evident in key battleground states, where Harris and Trump are separated by less than a percentage point in several instances. This neck-and-neck contest has energized both parties' bases and intensified the focus on undecided voters, who could prove key to securing Electoral College success in battleground states.

Who Would Win the Electoral College based on the polls?

The latest polling data shows that Harris could win the election by the closest margin since the Electoral College reached its current size of 538 electors in 1964.

According to the latest polling data from FiveThirtyEight, mapped by Newsweek, Harris would win Michigan and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Additionally, the vice president would win one district in Nebraska, giving her a total of 270 Electoral College votes - exactly the number needed to win. Trump would win North Carolina and one district in Maine, plus move Nevada, Georgia and Arizona into the red column to give him 268 Electoral College votes.

Kamala Harris, Donald Trump: Latest Poll Results

As of early Monday, Harris maintains her narrow lead over Trump in the national polls.

Polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight puts the vice president just 1.2 points ahead nationally.

The Democratic vice president had 48 percent support, while her Republican rival had 46.8 percent.

The most recent update to Nate Silver's election poll averages on the Silver Bulletin blog also saw Harris slightly ahead at 48.6 percent, with Trump at 47.6 percent.

Aggregator RealClearPolling also had Harris marginally ahead of Trump, with 48.7 percent support, compared to Harris' 48.6.

This time last year, RealClearPolling saw Trump also narrowly ahead of his then-rival Biden by 0.9 points with 45.6 percent support.

This November is shaping up to be a much closer month than it was during the last election cycle. Biden led by a more comfortable 7.2 points nationally in 2020, according to RCP.

How Much Do the Latest Polls Matter?

Polling averages snapshots rather than forecasts. While they may indicate current voter sentiment toward the candidates, the race for the White House is far from over.

National polls measure the popular vote. A presidential contender can win this yet still lose the election if they fail to secure 270 out of the 538 Electoral College votes, a number based on each state's delegates in the Senate and House of Representatives.

Some, but not all, aggregators will weigh the impact individual polls have on their averages based on how they perceive pollsters' methodologies and biases.

It should also be noted that polls have a margin of error, often of at least a few percentage points. Considering the current closeness of the scores, polls suggest a tight race between Harris and Trump that could swing either way.

Presidential Swing States: Polls for Trump, Harris

Since 38 of the 50 states have voted for the same political party from 2000 to 2016, the winner is almost always decided by a handful of "swing states," also known as "purple" or "battleground" states.

This year's election is likely to hinge on seven—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and North Carolina.

Arizona Polls

Trump led in three recent Arizona polls.

Patriot Polling saw the Republican on 51 percent support, with Harris on 48 percent support.

InsiderAdvantage had Trump on 49 and Harris on 46 percent, while AtlasIntel found Trump on 52 percent and Harris on 46.

Georgia Polls

Three recent Georgia polls also had Trump ahead.

InsiderAdvantage and Patriot polling both put Trump one point ahead of Harris, with 49 and 50 percent support in each respectively.

AtlasIntel found Trump to be two points ahead, with 50 percent support compared to Harris' 48.

Michigan Polls

Harris led in a Michigan survey by Research Co., with 49 percent support compared to Trump's 47.

The Republican-leaning Trafalgar Group saw Trump ahead, with 48 percent versus Harris' 47.

The candidates were tied in a Patriot Polling survey, both with 49 percent support.

Pennsylvania Polls

In Pennsylvania, Trump led in two recent surveys.

The Republican-leaning Trafalgar Group put Trump one point ahead of Harris on 48 percent support, and Patriot polling had Trump at 50 percent, one point ahead of Harris, who had 49 percent.

A Research Co. poll saw Harris in the lead, however, with 48 versus Trump's 47.

Wisconsin Polls

In Wisconsin, a survey by Research Co. put Harris three points ahead of Trump with 49 percent support.

A Trafalgar Group poll had Harris on 48 percent and Trump on 47 percent.

Both were tied in a survey by Patriot Polling, with 49 percent each.

Nevada Polls

In Nevada, Trump led by one point in a Patriot Polling survey. The Republican had 50 percent support while Harris had 49.

AtlasIntel put Trump more comfortably ahead, with 52 compared to Harris' 46.

Meanwhile, a poll by The New York Times/Siena College saw Harris in the lead. The Democratic nominee had 48 percent while Trump had 46.

North Carolina Polls

In North Carolina, Trump led in three recent polls.

Patriot Polling had Trump on 51 percent support and Harris on 49.

An InsiderAdvantage saw Trump on 49 and Harris on 47 percent, while a poll by AtlasIntel put Trump on 51 percent and Harris on 47.

What About Florida?

While not considered a swing state this year by pundits, polls have given Harris some hope in Trump's home state, and Florida has swung between the parties in past election cycles.

However, Republicans are currently considered to have a firm hold on the Sunshine State.

Betting Odds: Presidential Election 2024

The most recent aggregation of betting odds favors Trump.

According to RealClearPolitics, bookmakers currently give the Republican nominee a 59.7 percent chance of winning, and Harris a 38.9 percent chance.

Compared to standard election polls, which usually take place over multiple days, gambling odds are highly reactive to news events and thus update more quickly.

Past Elections: Drawing Similarities

Keep up to date with each candidate's strategies with Newsweek's campaign tracker.

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