Lucas Kunce Chances of Beating Josh Hawley in Missouri, According to Polls

Lucas Kunce secured the Democratic Party's nomination for Senate in Missouri on Tuesday and will go on to compete against incumbent Republican Senator Josh Hawley in November, with polls showing an uphill battle for the liberal challenger.

Hawley, a staunch supporter of former President Donald Trump, has served in the Senate since 2019 and previously was Missouri's attorney general from 2017 to 2019. The Republican in 2018 managed to flip the previously Democrat-held seat in a race against incumbent then-Senator Claire McCaskill, winning the race with 51.4 percent compared to her 45.6 percent of the vote.

Kunce, an attorney and a U.S. Marine, hopes to win back the seat for Democrats this year, but polling data of the Missouri race from the past several months has suggested Hawley is the clear favorite to win.

"This is our one shot to defeat Josh Hawley. To take this Senate seat back for real Missourians. To restore our freedoms and rebuild Missouri. And we won't waste it," the Democrat wrote on X, formerly Twitter, on Thursday.

On Tuesday, Hawley congratulated his opponent in a social media post, writing, "Congrats to @LucasKunceMO - now let's debate."

Newsweek reached out to the Hawley and Kunce campaigns via email on Thursday for comment.

Here's a closer look at where the race currently stands when it comes to polling.

Hawley vs. Kunce

The most recent poll for the Missouri race, which was carried out by Emerson College from July 10 to 11, shows Hawley up by 9 points. Notably, this was somewhat less than the 13 point lead the Republican held in a January poll by Emerson.

The July survey showed Hawley at 47 percent compared to Kunce's 38 percent. The poll included 1,000 registered voters with a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points. In January, Emerson polling showed Hawley at 43 percent whereas Kunce was at 30 percent. That previous survey included 1,830 registered voters in Missouri with a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.2 points.

March polling by Remington Research Group for the Missouri Scout news service had the Republican leading by 14 points. Hawley had the support of 53 percent of likely voters and Kunce was backed by 39 percent. That survey included 713 likely voters.

Is Hawley Popular?

Survey data from Saint Louis University and YouGov from February had Hawley's approval rating well above water—by 9 points. The poll showed 50 percent of Missourians approved of the Republican senator whereas 41 percent disapproved. The survey included 900 likely Missouri voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.72 percent.

While things could change in the coming months, The Hill's Missouri Senate Forecast predicts Hawley will easily win reelection. Currently, the model, which was last updated on July 18, shows the incumbent GOP senator with 97 percent chance of victory compared to just a 3 percent chance for his Democratic opponent. The Cook Political Report currently rates the race as "solid" Republican as well.