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Everyone knew this time was coming.
Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association are steaming toward a Dec. 1 expiration of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement. The deadline has been a target for both sides, particularly the players, since the agreement began in 2016.
Thursday, according to The Associated Press, MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred said striking a deal before the deadline is his priority. He stressed an offseason lockout is a much better scenario than an ongoing dispute which lasts into the 2022 season and causes the sport to lose games.
"We've been down this path. We locked out in '89-'90," Manfred said. "I don't think '94 worked out too great for anybody. I think when you look at other sports, the pattern has become to control the timing of the labor dispute and try to minimize the prospect of actual disruption of the season. That's what it's about. It's avoiding doing damage to the season."
Public disparaging of the other side this winter is expected by both groups. They bickered throughout the 2020 season when trying to determine a pay structure and schedule amid the sudden onset of the Coronavirus pandemic. Players and team owners have long been at odds over baseball's arbitration system. Players believe it inhibits earnings. Owners do not. Resolving how it works will be a key issue.
The proliferation of legalized sports gambling is sure to become another sticking point when the sides discuss what the revenue split should be.
In addition, the union is upset by what it views as an effort by several teams not to compete on an annual basis. Players also remain irritated by numerous rule changes introduced by Manfred during the last two years.
Many within the sport have considered the lockout inevitable and the main question not if it will happen, but how long it will last.
For more reporting from the Associated Press, see below.
Baseball had eight work stoppages from 1972-95, but there has been labor peace since a 7 1/2-month strike began in August 1994 and forced the cancellation of the World Series for the first time in 90 years.
Talks have been going on since spring but have lacked the momentum toward an agreement that characterized negotiations that led to deals in 2006, ''11 and '16.
Baseball had a 32-day spring training lockout in 1990 and while opening day was delayed a week, each team was scheduled for a full 162 games.
"Honestly, I can't believe there's a single fan in the world who doesn't understand that an offseason lockout that moves the process forward is different than a labor dispute that costs games," Manfred said.
While the luxury tax threshold was $210 million this year with a 20 percent rate for first-time offenders, management has proposed having a $180 million threshold with a 25 percent rate.
Teams also have proposed a $100 million payroll floor, which the union opposes because it is tied to tax penalties at the higher end.
Owners also have proposed replacing salary arbitration — for players with three years but less than six of major league service plus the top 17 percent by service time between two years and three — with pay determined by FanGraphs WAR The union considers that the type of salary scale it has rejected since 1989.
Players currently eligible for arbitration would have the option of being grandfathered under the existing arbitration system.
Players, concerned with service-time manipulation, have proposed dropping free agency eligibility from six seasons of service to five and arbitration eligibility to two seasons, where it stood before the 1985 strike settlement.
Owners instead proposed free-agent eligibility be changed to the age of 29.5 years.
Teams have rejected the union's proposal for revenue-sharing changes, designed to benefit smaller markets and to incentive positive performance. The clubs have proposed a restriction that a team could not pick among the first five in the amateur draft in three consecutive years.
"We remain committed, No. 1 priority, to make an agreement prior to December 1," said Manfred, who was the league's chief negotiator before becoming commissioner in 2015. "We understand, I understand that time is becoming an issue. That's a challenge. We've had challenges with respect to making labor agreements before, and we've got a pretty good track record of overcoming those challenges."
Manfred was not surprised that several free agents have reached agreements since the World Series, even though CBA rules for next season are uncertain.
"We're pretty good about following the law," he said. "The law is you should continue to operate as normal even during the negotiating period in free agency. And that means clubs making individual decisions as to what's best for them. So that's what they're doing."
