Mike Levin, Whose District Biden Won by 13 Points, at Risk to Lose His Seat

Democratic Representative Mike Levin of California is no longer the favorite to win reelection in his district where President Joe Biden carried by 12.7 points in the 2020 election.

On Wednesday, Politico updated its midterm forecast for California's 49th District, moving the race from "Lean Democratic" to a "Toss Up" between Levin and Republican challenger Brian Maryott.

In the June primary, Levin easily moved onto the general election after securing 49 percent of the vote to Maryott's 19 percent. But now that the other four Republican candidates won't be on the ballot, the Democrat is in a tight race as he seeks to win a third term and defeat Maryott for a second time.

Democrats are facing a tough midterm election despite summer optimism that the Supreme Court's decision to reverse Roe v. Wade would be enough to combat a red wave. But projections in a number of districts where Biden won by double-digit margins suggest that Republican momentum is building back.

The Politico Election Forecast's latest update means Republicans are favored to win 213 seats, just five seats shy of what the GOP would need to flip the House.

Levin was first elected to Congress in 2018 when the district was considered a major battleground. The district had historically been one of Southern California's more Republican districts but redistricting made it much more competitive. That year, the congressman won with 56.4 percent of the vote.

Two years later, Levin was reelected with 53.1 percent of the vote against Maryott.

Redistricting has once again upended California's 49th District. Calculations from liberal blog Daily Kos estimate that Biden would have won by a smaller margin, 54.6 percent of the vote instead of 55.2 percent if the 2020 election occurred within the new congressional map.

Although former President Donald Trump would still have lost the district, he would have received wider support, 43.2 percent of the vote, instead of the 42.5 percent seen in 2020.

Those valuations suggest that new district lines are working in Maryott's favor.

Earlier this month, a SurveyUSA poll showed Levin with a massive 20-point advantage over his Republican challenger. But GOP gains have been seen across the nation in the last couple of weeks as Republicans have made significant strides on the generic congressional ballot.

A month ago, FiveThirtyEight projected that Republicans had a 68-in-100 chance of controlling the House. On Thursday, those odds were up to 82 in 100. The nonpartisan election forecast currently has Levin with an 81-in-100 shot of beating Mayrott in this year's rematch.

Newsweek reached out to Levin's campaign for comment.