Mitch McConnell's Health Could Be Catastrophic for the Debt Ceiling Crisis

• Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell returned home from inpatient physical therapy following a fall he suffered in early March.
• The tight margins in the Senate could pose a problem in the debt ceiling fight.
• McConnell previously suggested he would not allow the U.S. to default.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's health could prove an added difficulty amid efforts to raise the federal debt ceiling and avoid a potentially catastrophic sovereign debt default.

McConnell returned home on Saturday after receiving inpatient physical therapy following a fall he suffered at a private dinner in Washington, D.C. on March 8 but it's not entirely clear when he will return to the Senate.

The Kentucky Republican's absence comes ahead of expected efforts to raise the debt ceiling and as two Democratic senators—John Fetterman of Pennsylvania and Dianne Feinstein of California—also remain absent.

The tight margins in the Senate could pose a problem in the widely anticipated debt ceiling fight, while McConnell suggested in January that he would not allow the U.S. to default.

"Periodically the debt ceiling has to be lifted and it's always a rather contentious effort," he told reporters.

"In the end, I think the important thing to remember is America must never default on its debt. It never has and never will," McConnell said.

McConnell is regarded as a moderating voice on the issue and his absence from the debate in the Senate, where Democrats have a wafer-thin 51-49 majority, could complicate efforts to reach a resolution.

The Senate will soon enter a two-week recess before resuming the week of April 17 and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has previously warned that the U.S. may be unable to pay its bills by June if the debt ceiling is not raised.

Political scientists who spoke to Newsweek suggested that McConnell would play a key role, but the Republican-led House could be the major stumbling block.

Raising the Debt Ceiling Is 'Critical'

The debt ceiling will have to be raised by Congress to pay for spending that has already been approved and not doing so could have serious negative effects.

"Raising the debt ceiling is critical to preserving the reputation of the United States as a country that always pays its bills," Cris deRitis, deputy chief economist, Moody's Analytics, told Newsweek.

"Failing to raise the debt limit will result in someone not getting paid money that Congress has already promised," deRitis said. "Whether that is an investor in U.S. Treasury bonds, a government contractor, a Social Security recipient, a veteran, or a health inspector, the impact on the U.S. economy could be severe with upwards of 7 million jobs lost and an unemployment rate of over 8 percent if the situation is not resolved quickly."

"Even if payments are delayed for only a few days, the long-term costs to the country could be large as bond investors will demand higher interest rates to compensate them for the risk they may not be paid in the future," he added.

A Responsible Voice

If raising the debt ceiling is essential to avoiding missed payments to bondholders, Social Security recipients and others, there may be little appetite in either party for refusing to do so.

"Republicans like to talk a good game when it comes to the debt ceiling. But it's often cheap talk, or just a ploy to extract concessions," Thomas Gift, founding director of University College London's Centre on U.S. Politics, told Newsweek.

Gift said that "for all the talk of reining in spending in the GOP, there's a remarkable amount of consensus in both parties that Washington is going to spend more than it takes in."

"Mitch McConnell may be a more responsible voice than some of his colleagues in weighing the risks of default," Gift said. "But it's hard to imagine even a more hardline Republican replacement allowing the country to fall over a fiscal cliff. It's not that the economic risks are too great. It's that the political risks are."

Not Twisting Arms

Despite absences and tight numbers, Democrats still control the Senate and will be able to steer the agenda there, according to Paul Quirk, a political scientist at the University of British Columbia, in Canada.

"McConnell's leadership would be helpful in raising the debt limit," Quirk told Newsweek. "But having him present in the Senate will not be crucial. The Democratic leadership controls the agenda."

"In predicting eventual Senate Republican support for the measure, as McConnell did in January, he was not promising to twist arms," he went on. "His responsible approach reflects the attitudes of many or most Republican senators."

Quirk said that with or without McConnell "it should not be too hard to collect ten or a dozen Republican senators to vote for cloture and enable passage of the debt limit increase."

Avoiding Economic Catastrophe

Some Republicans, including Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy, want to see spending cuts as part of any deal to raise the debt limit. McCarthy said on Tuesday that there had been "no progress" on debt ceiling talks and he was "very concerned about where we are."

House Republicans will be crucial in raising the debt ceiling but it's unclear if a deal can be reached.

"The hard part of raising the debt limit will be getting it through the Republican House," Quirk went on.

"The Trumpist, Freedom Caucus Republicans seem willing to blow up the economy if the Democrats don't accede to their demands on the budget," he said.

"Speaker McCarthy has been taking direction from the same faction. In the end, McCarthy may see the wisdom of avoiding direct personal and party responsibility for an economic catastrophe," Quirk said. "Whether he could bring the far right faction along, or would be willing to act against its wishes, is far from clear."