McConnell's Whatever-It-Takes Midterm Gambit May Cost Him Top Job

At the height of Democratic momentum over the summer, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell forecasted a grim outlook for Republican chances to win control of the chamber amid a number of flailing candidate performances and Democratic legislative victories.

Things have shifted dramatically in the two months since McConnell's prediction. Candidates once seen as threats to GOP victory—Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, even incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson in Wisconsin—are now legitimate contenders in next month's elections. And in a likely tight Senate campaign this cycle, McConnell has taken nothing for granted, boosting even fringe candidates like conspiracy-touting Republican Don Bolduc in a favorable race for Democrats in New Hampshire.

But McConnell's win-at-all-costs mantra could come back to haunt him—particularly as the party has begun embracing a more anti-establishment brand of candidate in this year's Senate elections.

Despite Republican leadership spending an estimated $23 million in New Hampshire this cycle, Bolduc said in a Wednesday interview with Politico he would refuse to support McConnell's re-appointment as Senate majority leader, a comment that came mere days after it was revealed in campaign finance reports that McConnell's Senate Leadership Fund had injected nearly $5 million into Bolduc's campaign.

"I have said no to that question, and I'm not backing off," Bolduc responded when asked whether he would agree to support McConnell as leader.

Though he didn't commit to an alternative choice for his party's leadership pending the election's outcome, Bolduc's comments come at a time some top Republicans have already begun positioning themselves for greater influence.

Some have raised the possibility of Florida Senator Rick Scott angling for party leadership after his eyebrow-raising decision to release his own midterm agenda for the party in February, while lower members of the totem pole have begun discussing their own futures following the retirement of Missouri Senator Roy Blunt.

Earlier this cycle, Scott described McConnell's and others' comments about the party's candidates as "treasonous" to the conservative cause in an op-ed penned for the Washington Examiner. McConnell in particular has also attracted the ire of former President Donald Trump, who polling shows remains the clear spiritual and ideological leader of today's GOP.

A leadership challenge would not be unprecedented either: In 1986, newly seated Senate Majority Leader Robert Byrd faced a stiff challenge from 11 younger, newly elected Democrats who sought to appoint a new face for the party to oppose the policies of the charismatic Ronald Reagan. (Byrd ultimately held onto his job, elevating a younger generation of Senate Democrats in the process.)

However, Bolduc—who won his primary as an anti-establishment candidate in Trump's mold—could be seen as employing a strategy to depict himself as a political outsider at a time his Democratic opponent, Maggie Hassan, has sought to tie him to McConnell and the whims of Republican leadership.

"Bolduc's no fool; he has to know that he has no incentive at this point to fall in line," Barbara Trish, a professor of political science at Grinnell College, told Newsweek. "Should he win, a change of heart to support McConnell might be easy to pull off. "

Trish noted many voters rarely pay attention to leadership battles—an exercise often relegated to chatter within the Beltway—leaving Bolduc with little likelihood he would be held accountable for falling in line by the time he's up for reelection in 2028. Bolduc, more than likely, would gradually shift his focus toward strengthening the party and securing his own power.

"Having no single clear likely successor to McConnell-as-leader might make it easier for Bolduc at this point to toss out the idea of supporting someone else, knowing that it won't matter much if he should get elected," said Trish.