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Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski aims to retain her Senate seat as she faces off against challenger Kelly Tshibaka, who has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump, in Alaska's nonpartisan ranked choice voting system, which appears set to benefit the incumbent, according to recent polling.
Alaska will hold its nonpartisan primary election on August 16 with recent polls suggesting that Tshibaka and Murkowski will make it to the general election. Under the new system, all candidates—Republicans, Democrats, and independents—will appear on the same primary ballot. Voters will then select the one candidate they prefer in each race, with the top four going on to the general election.
Polling data by Alaska Survey Research conducted from July 2 to 5 showed that more likely voters view Murkowski positively than Tshibaka. Some 42.5 percent of voters said they had a "very" or "somewhat" positive view of their current senator while just under 32 percent said the same about her GOP rival.
When looking at the general election, the Alaska Survey Research showed Murkowski coming out ahead. The ranked-choice system asks voters to rank their top four candidates in each race, marking ovals for first, second, third, and fourth.
If a candidate receives more than 50 percent of first choice votes, they win the race, but if no candidate garners above that threshold the contender with the least support is eliminated and voter's second choices are factored in. This process will continue for a third round of counting if none of the four candidates garners above 50 percent in the second round.
Alaska Survey Research's data showed Murkowski coming out on top after round three. In the first round, Tshibaka leads at 42.6 percent followed by Murkowski in second at 35.3 percent. In the second round, Tshibaka still leads with 44.7 percent and Murkowski has 35.7 percent. Then in the third round, the incumbent senator pulls ahead with 52.2 percent to her Trump-backed opponent's 47.8 percent.
The survey included 1,201 likely Alaskan voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent.
A previous survey by Alaska Survey Research in April showed Murkowski leading Tshibaka by 10 points when likely voters were asked only about the two candidates. The survey asked: "Two of the candidates will be Lisa Murkowski and Kelly Tshibaka, both Republicans. Who would you rank higher?" The incumbent Republican garnered 55 percent while her GOP rival received just 45 percent.
The poll included 1,208 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent.
A previous March survey boded better for Tshibaka. The Trump-backed challenger was narrowly ahead of Murkowski by 2 points in that poll by Cygnal, which was commissioned by Tshibaka's campaign. The incumbent senator received about 49 percent of the vote, as opposed to her Trump-backed rival's approximately 51 percent. Some 500 Alaskans were surveyed.
Murkowski drew Trump's anger by joining six other GOP senators in voting to convict him for inciting his supporters to attack the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. "President Trump—the nation's elected leader, the Commander in Chief of our armed forces—swore an oath to defend America and all that we hold sacred. He failed to uphold that oath," the GOP senator said with that decision on February 14, 2021.
Notably, Murkowski has previously demonstrated her ability to buck the odds and win despite the opposition of many Republicans in her state. In 2010, she won reelection as a write-in candidate after she lost in the state's GOP primary. At the time, she was the first senator in more than five decades to win as a write-in candidate.
About the writer
Jason Lemon is a Senior Politics Editor at Newsweek based in Brooklyn, New York. Prior to taking on the editor role, Jason's reporting focused ... Read more