Murphy Polls Several Points Ahead of Ciattarelli in Final Days of New Jersey Race

New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy is polling several points ahead of Republican Jack Ciattarelli as residents prepare to pick their next governor on Tuesday.

Murphy, a Democrat, is running for reelection in a state that hasn't reelected a Democratic governor in decades. He is running against Ciattarelli, a former member of the New Jersey General Assembly, and third-party candidates Madelyn Hoffman (Green Party), Gregg Mele (Libertarian) and Joanne Kuniansky (Socialist Workers Party).

Several polls conducted over the summer suggested Murphy was ahead of Ciattarelli by double digits. While his lead has narrowed from those summer margins with the approach of Election Day, most polls have still found Murphy retaining a strong lead.

Since mid-September, Murphy's polling lead has averaged between 4 and 13 points. On Monday, new polling results released by the Trafalgar Group and Rutgers University suggested the Democrat was ahead by 4 to 8 points heading into the November 2 election.

According to the Trafalgar Group poll, about 49.4 percent of the 1,085 voters polled said they planned to vote for Murphy, compared with 45.2 percent who said they would vote for Ciattarelli. An additional 4.3 percent said they were not yet sure which candidate they would support. Pollsters said the voter survey was conducted from October 29 through 31 with a 2.98 percent margin of error.

The poll from the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling (ECPIP) at Rutgers University found Murphy with a stronger 8-point lead over Ciattarelli. The Rutgers poll was conducted from October 21 to 27 among 1,008 voters in New Jersey and had an adjusted margin of error of 4.1 points.

Polling averages compiled by RealClearPolitics estimated Murphy was leading by more than 7 points the day before the election.

ECPIP Director Ashley Koning said in a Monday press release that while the Rutgers poll's results suggested voter leanings for "a snapshot in time," it would be tough for Ciattarelli to make enough gains among voters before the election to defeat Murphy. Pointing to other polling results released over the last week, "the big picture points to a sizable margin for Murphy that—despite narrowing throughout the campaign—will be difficult for Ciattarelli to overcome in the final days, especially in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans two-to-one in registration," Koning said.

New Jersey is one of only two U.S. states with regularly-scheduled gubernatorial elections taking place this fall. While the governor's race in Virginia has attracted more attention than the race in New Jersey due in part to the close nature of recent polls, pollsters said national politics is similarly impacting voter leanings in New Jersey.

"The race has become more about referendums on the national parties, politicians and policies rather than on New Jersey-centric issues, and more about automatic partisan-based opposition than genuine support of either candidate or their positions," Koning said in the release.