NATO Focusing on Russia's Arctic Threat as Putin Seeks to Dominate Region

NATO does not expect Russia's costly war in Ukraine to prove a long-term distraction from Moscow's plan to dominate the Arctic, a senior alliance diplomat has said, as climate change opens new opportunities and poses new risks for the region.

James Appathurai, NATO's deputy assistant secretary general for emerging security challenges, told Newsweek on the sidelines of this weekend's Helsinki Security Forum in Finland that alliance nations will likely increase their focus on the high north as part of a long-term strategy to counter Russia.

Punishing warfare has forced the Kremlin to deploy troops, equipment, and supplies from sensitive areas to the battlefields of Ukraine. Officials in bordering states have noted a weakened Russian presence at their borders, with previously deployed units taking high casualties.

Asked if Russia remains as much of a threat in the Arctic as before the invasion, Appathurai responded: "My short answer would be: yes."

"Russia has for years been opening up or reopening military facilities in the high north, in the Arctic, putting all kinds of military capability up there, icebreakers in numbers or amounts that really dwarf what any...ally is putting up there, even collectively. It's very, very substantial."

President Vladimir Putin has made no secret of Russia's intentions to dominate the Arctic region, which is thought to be home to trillions of dollars of untapped fossil fuel reserves and minerals, as well as new valuable shipping lines. Russia controls 53 percent of the Arctic coastline, and has some two million people living in the region.

"Everyone wants to bite off somewhere or to bite off something from us," Putin said last year about Russia's Arctic territories. "But they should know, those who are going to do this, that we will knock out everyone's teeth so that they cannot bite."

NATO nations, including the U.S., have long expressed concern about Russian intentions in the thawing north. In August, the State Department said it plans to appoint its first Arctic ambassador as competition with Russia and China—which has declared itself a "near-Arctic state"—appears inevitable.

Appathurai told Newsweek there is a significant danger of fresh tensions, even as Moscow suffers further setbacks in Ukraine.

"They have a clear national priority—President Putin has said it many, many times—of establishing dominance in the Arctic, so I don't expect that to change or to fade. This Ukraine attack of theirs may have diverted resources on a temporary basis. But that's a clear strategic goal of theirs."

"With climate change, the environment appears changing, and there's more access, there are more mineral resources that can be accessed, there's more shipping there, and Russia intends to have a dominant position."

"We have to ensure that we have freedom of navigation. That's our interest. So I think you'll see an increased focus by all allies up in the Arctic, and we'll have to see how that plays into NATO itself."

The Ukraine war has frozen multilateral Arctic cooperation, traditionally somewhat insulated from political tensions elsewhere. The work of the eight-nation Arctic Council—the rotating chair of which is currently held by Russia—for example, has been suspended for several months. The other members of the group are the U.S., Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden.

The Arctic, Appathurai said, "has been one of the few places where constructive cooperation with the Russians has been taking place...there has to be some place you can talk to the Russians and have it not degenerate into great difficulty."

"Now, I think even that is being called into question because of Russian militarization there, because Russia is actually making it much more difficult to operate even in these Arctic Council environments. It's becoming worse."

Newsweek has contacted the Russian Foreign Ministry to request comment.

Russia has also complained of more difficult working conditions in the north, warning it will resort to military measures if needed to protect the "Northern Sea Route"; Moscow's name for the section of the Northeast Passage that runs along the Russian Arctic coastline.

"I can assure you that all the necessary measures are being taken along the military line, which take into account NATO's increased activity in the Arctic in recent years and help prevent threats to civilian navigation in the waters of the Northern Sea Route," said Nikolai Korchunov—Russia's most senior Arctic diplomat—on Monday.

Appathurai said there is little expectation of a diplomatic thaw in the Arctic. "I feel like it's going to be very difficult to avoid having a much more robust security discussion about the Arctic," he said.

"Trust is gone; that's a big problem."