NATO Chief Evaluates Ukraine Counteroffensive Chances

Ukraine has now received 98 percent of the promised NATO combat vehicles as Kyiv prepares for a spring counteroffensive that could prove crucial in deciding how its ongoing war with Russia ends.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters on Thursday that alliance members have now transferred more than 1,550 armored vehicles, 230 tanks, and large amounts of ammunition and other unspecified equipment to Ukraine to support its next offensive operation, which is reportedly imminent.

Speaking at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, Stoltenberg lauded what he called "unprecedented support to Ukraine" over the past 14 months. "In total we have trained and equipped more than nine new Ukrainian armored brigades," he added. "This will put Ukraine in a strong position to continue to retake occupied territory."

Speculation is rife as to where and when Ukraine's spring push will come. Kyiv's troops have been fighting a furious defense on the eastern and southern fronts in recent months, hoping to exhaust Russian forces without ceding significant territory.

Now backed by a glut of new NATO weapons systems, Ukrainian troops will be hoping to liberate more territory as they did in 2022 offensives north of Kyiv in April, around the northeastern city of Kharkiv in September, and on the southern front around Kherson later in the fall.

Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Ukraine's defense minister from 2019 to 2020 and now an adviser to Zelensky's government, told Newsweek that the required NATO weaponry has now "largely" arrived, though said Kyiv has not yet received 100 percent of what it is expecting.

As to the looming operation, Zagorodnyuk said too much attention could prove a problem for Ukraine. "I think it's unhelpful as it builds up too many expectations," he said.

Mark Voyger—a former special adviser for Russian and Eurasian affairs to Lieutenant General Ben Hodges when he was commander of the U.S. Army Europe—told Newsweek: "It's good news that the Ukrainians are receiving almost everything that they expected, but I suspect it's far from everything that they've requested."

Ukrainian troops will go into battle without some key weapons that Kyiv has so long been lobbying its Western partners for: American Abrams tanks, the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System, and F-16 fighter jets.

"That means that they must, in conjunction with Western planners, adjust those plans accordingly," said Voyger, now a non-resident senior fellow at Center for European Analysis and professor at American University of Kyiv.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Friday that Kyiv's troops are "more than ready," telling reporters that preparations for the offensive "are coming to an end."

But Russian troops have had several months to prepare for the coming Ukrainian operation, though tens of thousands of their compatriots have been fighting hard in the eastern Donetsk region for little gain, including in the "meat grinder" battles around Bakhmut and Vuhledar.

Among the leaked Pentagon intelligence documents—some of which are thought to have been tampered with—was an assessment from February that Ukrainian troops can only expect "modest territorial gains" from its coming counteroffensive, The Washington Post reported.

That chimed with cautious comments made by Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines in open testimony to the Senate intelligence committee in March. Then, Haines told lawmakers, according to The Guardian: "There is currently a grinding, attritional war in which neither side has a definitive military advantage."

"At present the Ukrainian armed forces remain locked in a struggle to defend against Russian offences across eastern Ukraine," Haines said.

"And while these Russian assaults are costly for Russia, the extent to which Ukrainian forces are having to draw down their reserves and equipment as well as suffer further casualties will all likely factor into Ukraine's ability to go on the offensive later this spring."

Ukrainian and foreign officials have expressed concern that an underwhelming Ukrainian counteroffensive may prompt fresh calls for a ceasefire and negotiations, in which Kyiv might be pressed to make territorial or political concessions in exchange for an end to the fighting.

Simon Smith, a former British ambassador to Ukraine, told Newsweek that Kyiv is likely considering several options for its next push. "I don't actually see it as a massively crucial question," Smith—who also served at the British embassy in Moscow and is now at the British Chatham House think tank—said.

"My personal belief is that it simply remains one of a range of options," he added. "I do think possibly that the Ukrainian leadership may have a little bit of explaining to do, if it turns out that actually the next military step is not a major offensive and it's something else."

"But to be honest, I also think that it does no harm to retain a whole number of options as to what might be the next military steps. It never does any harm to keep your enemy guessing."

Advancing Ukrainian troops will soon find out whether the Russian forces have been sufficiently reinforced and entrenched since the last major Ukrainian advance around Kherson in November.

"We haven't seen the Russians actually put up a serious defense fighting in Ukraine so far," Voyger noted. "When they were beginning to lose, or at least when their advances stalled and they saw that they couldn't advance much, they actually withdrew, like around Kyiv and Kharkiv."

"Every time the Ukrainians advanced, the Russians pulled back," Voyger added, suggesting that Ukrainian forces would be "treading new ground" if Moscow's troops do mount a committed defense.

"If the Ukrainians don't punch through as quickly as they always have, the tables may turn. Then we'll have to see how the Russians fare in defense, and how the Ukrainians fare in a situation of protracted offensive operations."

Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry to request comment.