New Poll Shows Pete Buttigieg Winning in Key Swing State New Hampshire as Elizabeth Warren Slips

A new poll out of New Hampshire shows Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg with a slim lead in the early voting swing state, as Elizabeth Warren has slipped into fourth place.

The latest survey, which was conducted by Boston's NPR radio station WBUR and MassINC Polling Group, showed Buttigieg—the mayor of South Bend, Indiana—with 18 percent support, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 17 percent, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont with 15 percent and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts with 12 percent. Representative Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii and entrepreneur Andrew Yang tied for fifth place, each with 5 percent.

An October poll of New Hampshire primary voters conducted by CNN and the University of New Hampshire showed Sanders in the lead with 21 percent, followed by Warren at 18 percent. Biden had 15 percent in that previous poll and Buttigieg was in fourth, with 10 percent. However, the top four have remained unchanged, which is in line with most national polling as well.

Commenting on the latest poll results, Steve Koczela, president of the MassINC Polling Group, said it was "remarkable" how "close" the race remains to be. "We've got three candidates, all within three points of each other—and Elizabeth Warren not that far behind, right there in that top tier. Basically, [this is] a race that could go in any direction," he said, according to WBUR.

The new New Hampshire poll differs from previous surveys conducted by different organizations in November. The Boston Globe and Suffolk University released a primary poll of the state late last month showing Sanders in the lead at 16 percent, followed by Warren at 14 percent, then Buttigieg at 13 percent and Biden at 12 percent. A survey by Emerson showed Sanders with an even more commanding lead, with 26 percent of respondents favoring his candidacy. The senator was followed by Buttigieg at 22 percent, while Warren and Biden tied for third with 14 percent.

Even though Buttigieg enjoyed the most support in the WBUR/MassINC poll, Sanders had the highest favorability. Sixty percent of respondents viewed the senator favorably, while slightly less—58 percent—viewed Buttigieg favorably. Biden ranked third with 53 percent, followed by Warren at 52 percent.

The survey was conducted from December 3 to 8, polling a total of 442 likely voters.

National polls still suggest Biden has a commanding lead over his opponents. An aggregate of nationwide surveys by Real Clear Politics showed the former vice president with an average of 28.5 percent support. Sanders comes in second but more than 10 points behind, at 17.8 percent. Warren has 15.3 percent support, and Buttigieg has 9 percent.