New York Voters Turn Eyes to Crime, and That May Be Bad News for Democrats

A new poll shows a top issue for voters in New York may benefit some Republican candidates in particularly tight races across the state.

Democratic candidates have traditionally easily won the governorship in New York, but Republican Lee Zeldin is closing in on incumbent Kathy Hochul, a Democrat. A recent poll by Quinnipiac University shows that likely voters say crime is the most urgent issue in the state. That focus could be enough to boost Zeldin's ratings over Hochul, as he has based much of his campaign on crime.

According to the poll, Hochul still led Zeldin by 4 points overall. Zeldin led Hochul by 1 point in the New York suburbs. According to the poll, 42 percent of Republicans ranked crime as a top issue, buoying crime to the top of the list. For Democrats, crime sank to second place for most important issues, with 18 percent of Democratic voters saying it was the top issue, behind only protecting democracy, which was the top issue for 23 percent of Democrats. Crime ranked at the top of the list of issues independent voters are concerned about.

Zeldin has based his campaign strongly on crime. One expert told Newsweek that the poll could mean good news for Republicans, specifically Zeldin, in the close race. Andy Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center and a political science professor, told Newsweek that oftentimes, top issues differ for Republicans and Democrats. If the parties unite on a top issue, it could benefit whichever party has campaigned heavily on that issue.

"If Republicans think [crime] is a big issue, and if Democrats and independents think it's a big issue, that's a cross-cutting issue that helps Republicans not only get people to the polls but might cause some Democrats or particularly more independent voters to be more receptive to an up-on-crime message," Smith said. "That is an issue that would have some legs for the Republican in that election."

Both Zeldin and Hochul have campaigned on crime, with much of Zeldin's crime messaging focused on suspending cashless bail laws and Hochul's based on gun violence. That could lead to partisan votes for Democratic and Republican voters, depending on which factors drove crime to the top of their list of important issues.

Quinnipiac University poll analyst Mary Snow told Newsweek that the poll doesn't show if Zeldin is closing in on Hochul based on his campaign against crime or other issues he's campaigned on.

"While crime isn't the number one issue among every single group, overall it ranks as the most urgent issue," Snow said. "Zeldin has made crime a major part of his campaign, is that where he's making inroads in this race?"

Snow said inflation also ranked high on the list of issues for voters.

"While crime is ranked as the most urgent, inflation is also a top issue and protecting democracy," Snow said. "[Zeldin] has made crime and economy as his top messages."

Upstate New York voters prioritize inflation over crime, and Zeldin leads Hochul by 8 percentage points in that area.

Snow said the poll doesn't address a development that may plague Zeldin in the election. The poll concluded on the same day former President Donald Trump endorsed Zeldin, and it's possible the endorsement will do more harm than good. Much of Zeldin's potential for edging Hochul out of office depends on how independents vote, and Snow said the poll found that six out of 10 independents had an unfavorable view of Trump.

"Does [the endorsement] impact independents, does it energize Democrats, does it have no impact? We don't know," Snow said.